Today officially enters July, with the monthly line completing its close. From the pattern, the monthly line has produced a solid bearish candlestick, indicating that the bears have maintained dominance throughout June, and market sentiment remains weak. Based on historical experience, this type of monthly line pattern often signifies that bear strength has not been fully released, with a low probability of a trend reversal in the short term.

Therefore, if the market experiences a rapid rise at the beginning of July, caution is warranted. It is more likely that it will complete an upper shadow at the monthly line level through a short-term rebound, then revert to the original bearish rhythm. This logic is somewhat similar to the operation logic of last week's weekly line—first spiking, then retracting.

The true bottom is never forged through sideways movement but requires volume and capital to confirm it together. Currently, the market is still in a cycle of gradual decline—sideways movement—small recovery, and there has been no significant influx of incremental capital entering, nor has there been a formation of a volume-based signal to halt the decline, indicating that patience is still required for bottom confirmation.

It is noteworthy that yesterday BTC saw over $100 million in support funds above $59,000, yet ultimately failed to maintain this critical position, also indicating that the current bears firmly hold market dominance, making it difficult for the short-term trend to be completely reversed.

Bitcoin (BTC)

From a cyclical perspective, the 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, and 8-hour charts have all entered an oversold area, with the 12-hour cycle still showing slight insufficiency in recovery. This means that the short-term technical rebound demand is continuously accumulating.

In terms of operations, I prefer buying on sharp declines, reducing positions on rebounds.

Attention should be focused on the key position of $58,000. Should it fall below this level, a rapid needle-like drop may occur, releasing panic sentiment. If a sharp decline with volume appears during the day, followed by a quick recovery, it could become a short-term buying opportunity.

Conversely, if there is an initial rise today, one should not relax their vigilance. The current market still maintains the characteristic of **"retracting when meeting resistance,"** and until there is a volume breakthrough, every rebound should be viewed as a repair, rather than a trend reversal.

Overall, the start of July will still primarily focus on constructing a bottom through fluctuation; what truly merits attention is not the height of the rebound, but whether the market begins to show signals of volume halting the decline, capital inflow, and multi-cycle resonance.

Support levels to watch: 58200-58500, 57000-57500

Resistance levels to watch: 60000, 60800

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