Written before the non-farm data

The previous non-farm data has always been important for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, but recently the significance of non-farm data has begun to decline, mainly because the rise in inflation has suppressed labor data, and now the Federal Reserve believes that the U.S. labor market is still quite good.

So from my personal perspective, the current non-farm data, which includes the unemployment rate and non-farm employment data, are not good data.

Especially since the unemployment rate has always been linked to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, it often rises, raising concerns about a recession in the U.S., which would lead to considerations of interest rate cuts. If the unemployment rate decreases, it indicates a strong U.S. economy, so if inflation hasn’t fallen, they won’t consider cutting interest rates.

Because a rising unemployment rate increases worries about the U.S. economy, and with high inflation, even if the unemployment rate is relatively high, it's unlikely to cut rates; if the unemployment rate decreases, then they are even less likely to cut rates, so no matter what data, it’s not good data.

However, non-farm data has indeed weakened somewhat now, so I personally estimate that the market impact will not be significant; the best data is to remain unchanged.

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