Author: BitalkNews

12 Bitcoin Data Indicators, Telling You if Bitcoin is Bottoming Out?

The current BTC price is about $59,600, which is a maximum drawdown of about 53% from the peak in 2025. The market has entered a deep adjustment phase, and multiple indicators show that valuations are close to historical lows, but confirmation of the bottom still requires time.

Indicator 1: Fear and Greed Index

The current reading is 16, entering the "extreme fear" range. The last time a similar level appeared was during the FTX incident in 2022, with market sentiment close to historical extremes of pessimism.

Indicator 2: Rainbow Chart

BTC has fallen into the "Bitcoin is dead" dead zone, marking the second occurrence in history, with prices significantly below the long-term trend valuation area.

Indicator 3: MVRV Ratio

The current MVRV is about 1.13, at the lower edge of the historical low channel, corresponding to a price range of about $53,200 to $53,400, with market valuations nearing the bottom area.

Indicator 4: Realized Price

CryptoQuant shows that the realized price of BTC is about $53,400, with the current price only about 12% higher, and it has not fallen below the long-term holding cost line.

Indicator 5: UTXO Profit and Loss Ratio

This indicator has dropped to its lowest level in this round of adjustment. CryptoQuant believes that the market has clearly shown a "surrender" signal for the first time, historically close to the cycle bottom.

Indicator 6: Long-Term Holder SOPR

The SOPR of long-term holders who have held for over 155 days is 0.662, entering negative territory, with older holders beginning to sell at a loss, further releasing selling pressure in the market.

Indicator 7: Miners' Survival Status

BTC prices are long-term below the production costs of some miners, with about 20% of miners in a loss state, facing significant pressure in this round of the cycle.

Indicator 8: Miners' Income Divergence

Miners' actual income is significantly below theoretical levels, with transaction fee income at a low point, and the process of miner surrendering is ongoing.

Indicator 9: ETF Capital Flow

The U.S. spot BTC ETF has seen continuous net outflows recently, with outflows for 13 consecutive days and a weekly net outflow of over $1.7 billion, putting pressure on institutional buying.

Indicator 10: Strategy Risk

Strategy holds about 847,000 BTC, but its stock premium has significantly shrunk, facing pressure on the traditional "financed buying" model.

Indicator 11: Duration of Bear Market and Drawdown

This round of adjustment has lasted more than 265 days, with a maximum drawdown of about 52.5%, with the decline lower than historical bear markets, but the duration is approaching a longer cycle.

Indicator 12: Polymarket Market Expectations

Market bets show that there is still about an 80% probability of BTC falling below $55,000, and a significant probability of falling below $50,000, with traders remaining cautious.

Currently, Bitcoin is in a stage of deep adjustment and potential bottom formation.

Valuation indicators have already entered historical low areas (extreme fear, rainbow dead zone, MVRV about 1.13, price only about 12% above realized price), and on-chain surrender signals are gradually accumulating (miner pressure, long-term holders starting to sell at a loss, low UTXO).

However, the complete clearing is not over— the realized price has still not been effectively broken below, and ETF demand has not yet reversed.

The area below $60,000 has medium to long-term appeal, but currently, it is more suitable to patiently observe and confirm signals rather than taking aggressive action. Key signals to focus on include ETF inflows turning positive, recovery of long-term holder SOPR, and alleviation of miner pressure.

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