Yesterday, the situation in the Middle East escalated again, and market risk aversion quickly intensified. Iran continued to send strong signals regarding the issue of international straits, and geopolitical risks became the focus of the market once more. The previously reached agreement has not yet been fully implemented, and the market has begun to worry about its subsequent execution, leading to a clear decline in risk appetite.

At the same time, Federal Reserve officials continued to release hawkish statements, and high interest rate expectations once again suppressed risk assets. Recently, the market has returned to a rhythm of "constant bad news and bearish sentiment," where every piece of news causes amplified market fluctuations, and insufficient liquidity further exacerbates the rapid decline in prices. This manipulation of sentiment through repeated news is essentially a common trading rhythm used by international capital.

However, from the perspective of the cycle, the daily, weekly, and monthly lines are gradually converging towards the bottom region, and a large-scale resonance is brewing. Once there is a return of capital in conjunction, the market is expected to experience a truly meaningful phase-based rebound, rather than previous fleeting technical recoveries.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Currently, it is still in the range-bound consolidation bottoming phase, and the market is repeatedly confirming the bottom region.

Spot BTC ETF has seen continued net outflows recently, and new capital has not yet returned significantly; technically, the MACD green bars continue to expand, and the bearish momentum has not been fully released. Both EMA15 and EMA30 moving averages remain in a bearish arrangement, with the overall trend still leaning towards weakness.

It is crucial to pay attention to the 56801 dollar level. If this level is breached, the cumulative long liquidations on major exchanges are expected to reach 1.464 billion dollars, which could lead to a concentrated release of risk. However, based on historical experience, this often also marks a critical time window when panic sentiment peaks, and capital begins to position itself in phases.

Therefore, the operating strategy remains unchanged:

Do not chase shorts on sharp declines; wait for low purchase opportunities after panic releases; if there is a rebound to resistance areas, continue to look for high short opportunities.

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This article is an original publication by 【Huiying Community】 and represents personal views only. Due to the inherent delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate with caution.
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