Yesterday, the market was once again dominated by news. Trump openly stated that he does not accept Iran's charges for the Strait of Hormuz and hinted at possible further actions, causing geopolitical risks to heat up rapidly, and the crypto market immediately experienced a sharp decline. Although prices later rebounded somewhat, the intense volatility has led to a large number of leveraged positions being liquidated, severely impacting market sentiment, with Bitcoin and Ethereum almost giving back all of their previous rally gains.

From the current structure, the daily level still maintains a strong bearish pattern, and the overall trend has not changed. After the overnight rebound repair, as of this morning’s trading session, Bitcoin has only completed 30-minute level repairs and has arrived near the short-term pressure zone; based on the current momentum, even if it continues to repair, the upper one-hour and two-hour levels will face significant resistance, and further breakthroughs will still require new capital support.

From a technical perspective, BTC has fallen below all EMA moving averages, and the moving average system continues to maintain a bearish arrangement, with the MACD green bars continuously expanding, indicating that bearish momentum has not yet been fully released. The overall trend is still dominated by bears, and short-term rebounds are more of a technical repair in the downtrend process.

However, with continuous pullbacks, indicators like RSI have gradually entered the oversold area, and there is a possibility of forming a double bottom structure in the market. At the same time, certain bullish signals appeared after a spike on the four-hour level, indicating that capital is beginning to attempt to support at lower levels. If the crucial support holds steady after a subsequent pullback and confirms, a stronger technical rebound cannot be ruled out.

The current biggest characteristic of the market is:

Trend is bearish, but short-term is oversold;
Can expect a rebound, but shouldn’t easily look for a reversal.

In terms of operation, it is more suitable to wait for confirmation of effective support after a pullback before participating in lower long positions; if a rebound reaches key pressure areas and shows significant volume without upward momentum, attention should still prioritize high-level short opportunities.
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This article is an original publication by 【Huiying Community】 and only represents personal opinions. Due to certain delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please judge rationally and operate cautiously.
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