From CLARITY to the Predictive Market: Key Variables Facing the "Six-Month Sprint" for Crypto Policy.

Written by: Cleve Mesidor (Executive Director of the Blockchain Foundation, Washington D.C.)

Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

In this sports season filled with Cinderella comeback stories, the crypto industry is also looking forward to its own spotlight moment—the CLARITY bill being pushed forward by the U.S. Senate may become that crucial "comeback." However, with two quarters left until the final whistle, the Republicans may need to reach a compromise with the White House on moral issues while courting a few Republican senators who are still on the fence.

Now it's just halftime, there are still six months left in the year, and anything is possible. Legislative victories and scoring in sports are essentially no different; they require multiple factors to align precisely. Sometimes, burning a bit of sage for blessings doesn't hurt—just like the New York Knicks demonstrated this year.

The second half of the policy year will be a critical period for intense negotiations between the two parties in both houses of Congress. Looking at the big picture, market structure legislation is just one part of a larger script, aimed at building a comprehensive policy and regulatory framework for Web3 and DeFi.

The Congressional calendar is already packed, with only about 40 legislative working days left—despite the lame duck session and the midterm elections, the time for all parties to strategize and adjust scores is running short.

Crowded Policy Arena

Apart from the prospects of the CLARITY bill, can multiple crypto tax proposals derived from the new PARITY bill ride the coattails of larger legislation and materialize this year?

Will the core language of the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act pull off a "Hail Mary" pass to officially enshrine developer protection into law?

In addition, the tight push surrounding the GENUIS rulemaking is still ongoing, with key terms yet to be finalized.

For crypto enthusiasts, it's like sports fans chasing an entire season: a rich lineup and constant suspense, creating excitement and tension.

CFTC Lacks Starting Lineup

It is concerning that a financial regulatory agency is missing four commissioners. For the crypto industry, this directly impacts expectations for action from Washington—whether new commissioners can be nominated and confirmed this year remains highly uncertain.

More challenging is who will win the jurisdictional battle over predictive markets? Will it be the states, or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)? Or will it ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court?

Of course, this is not implying you should place bets.

The Crypto Champions About to Retire

No matter what the final policy outcome is, the remaining days of this year will likely be bittersweet. Two heavyweight "crypto champions" are about to hang up their federal jerseys, and their departures will have profound short-term and long-term impacts: SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce and U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis.

Peirce, as a two-term commissioner, has led the SEC's Crypto Special Working Group and has been a core architect of cross-regulatory coordination efforts. Lummis serves as the chair of the Senate Banking Committee's Digital Assets Subcommittee, a key negotiator for bipartisan compromise, and a steadfast advocate for the BRCA.

Second Half Outlook: How Industry Leaders See It

I interviewed several seasoned industry leaders to understand their assessments of the current crypto policy deliberations. Here are their views on CLARITY, taxation, and predictive markets:

Sara K. Weed (Partner at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP):

"Undeniably, we are steadily moving in the right direction. However, due to the shortage of legislative working days and election pressures, the probability of CLARITY passing in this Congress is low. Consequently, agencies like the SEC and CFTC will be compelled to take on a more active role in providing the much-needed clarity for the industry. Of course, the question is how far they can go under their existing authority."

Sulolit "Raj" Mukherjee (CEO of Bodin Advisory):

"If history can provide guidance, meaningful crypto tax legislation is most likely to pass not as an independent bill, but embedded within broader tax, budget, or year-end omnibus legislation. The current proposals are relatively focused, have bipartisan consensus, and aim to address specific issues such as minimum exemptions, staking tax treatment, wash sale rules, and information reporting requirements. When these terms are attached to must-pass legislation, they are easier to advance. Whether they can ultimately materialize depends on Congress’s allocation of energy, scoring mechanisms, and whether legislators view crypto tax rules as technical fixes to enhance compliance rather than a broader debate on digital asset policy. There is a real opportunity for at least one or two measures to become law this year, but they will likely be packaged rather than an independent crypto tax bill."

Rashan Colbert (U.S. Policy Director at Crypto Council for Innovation):

"I will not predict how the courts will resolve jurisdiction disputes, but the general direction is clear: as the predictive market category matures, the CFTC is working to build a more enduring regulatory framework for it. The recently released NPRM is another step towards providing more transparency and legal certainty for market participants—both the user base and trading volume in this area are rapidly growing.

The core question is: should predictive markets be primarily viewed as financial market infrastructure, or broadly classified as gambling? I believe these markets have the potential to become complex tools for expressing views, hedging risks, and simplifying access to various events and asset derivatives. If an overly broad gambling framework is adopted, it could stifle their potential before the market has a chance to develop into positive financial infrastructure."

The second half of crypto policy has begun, the time window is narrowed, but the opportunity window still exists. The industry needs ongoing bipartisan communication and pragmatic advancement to achieve substantial results by 2026.