Written by: Trend Research

Just ten days after SpaceX went public, the market sentiment has changed. The confirmation of $20 billion in bond financing means that the $8.57 billion raised from the IPO is not for deleveraging, but rather to continue burning cash. The speed of market repricing is even faster than the surge on the first day of the IPO.

Market Performance

Indices were under pressure across the board: the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 7472.79, the Nasdaq dropped 1.32% to 26166.60, while the Dow Jones rose 0.29% to 51712.71.

SpaceX fell 16.43% to $154.6, dropping more than 20% in three days, and the listing halo has completely faded. It touched a high of $225.64 intraday on June 16, and by Monday it had dropped below the first-day closing price of $160.95, with its market value evaporating by $800 billion from the peak.

The fundamental issue lies in the financing logic. The $8.57 billion raised from the IPO already has a clear destination: $6 billion for the acquisition of Cursor, while the remainder is used to repay bridge loans for xAI. Subsequently, SpaceX issued $20 billion in bonds to continue refinancing the bridge loans. 22V Research noted that up to 44% of internal shares could flood the market from August to September, while only 4.2% of the circulating shares are currently available.

Micron rose 6.9% to $1,211.38, hitting an all-time high. The driving force behind this is a strategic agreement with Anthropic for a long-term supply of HBM, DRAM, and solid-state drives. This deal effectively stamps the long-term demand for AI infrastructure.

High-valuation tech stocks are under pressure across the board: Google fell over 5%, Meta declined 2.3%, Amazon dropped 4.8%, and Microsoft fell 3%. The communications sector experienced its largest single-day drop since April, nearing 4%. Caterpillar rose nearly 4%, leading the Dow Jones. Industrial and financial stocks were relatively resilient, with funds making a clear switch within tech stocks.

Oil prices fell to $76, marking a new low in over three months. A framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran was reached over the weekend, with the market pricing in the most optimistic scenario for the Strait of Hormuz. The VIX rose back to around 16, indicating that the selling pressure on high-valuation tech has not yet fully dissipated.

Macro and Outlook

The story of SpaceX is straightforward: the uses of IPO proceeds and bond financing have long been decided, with no plans for deleveraging. Morningstar analysts set the fair value at $62, while the current stock price is 2.8 times the fair value, making it the second highest valuation under Morningstar coverage. Oppenheimer's debt model is more direct: net debt could balloon from $13 billion to $400 billion by 2031. No one denies SpaceX's technological capabilities, but capital costs are rising rapidly.

The U.S.-Iran agreement alleviated oil prices, but the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is not happening as quickly as imagined. Infrastructure has been damaged in the conflict, shipping capacity will take time to recover, inventory is depleted, and rebuilding supply will also require time. The market is pricing in the most optimistic scenario, and any delays in negotiations, differences in details, or subsequent conflicts could lead to a rebound in oil prices.

On Wednesday morning, NVIDIA's shareholder meeting and new structural capacity disclosures, followed by Micron's earnings report and May's PCE on Thursday, will be decisive moments this week. If Micron can provide visibility on HBM supply through 2027, it will support a new high in the chip sector; if PCE continues to exceed expectations, high-valuation tech will remain under pressure.

Trend Perspective

The story of SpaceX shifted from "AI platform premium" to "rising financing costs" in just ten days. With a market value of $2 trillion, it continues to seek financing, while investors are not repricing profitability but rather weighing how long the financing narrative can persist.

The agreement between Micron and Anthropic provides a comparative framework: There is indeed demand for AI, and it is resilient, but the place with the highest certainty is at the infrastructure level, not the application level. One is burning cash for financing, while the other is confirming supply. The market's preference is clear.

SpaceX’s decline has short-term implications for the entire tech sector. Any rebound before Thursday should be approached with caution. The progress of the U.S.-Iran agreement may be a false signal, delaying the process of re-evaluating high valuations, but it has not changed the direction. What truly determines the trend is the two data releases on Thursday: whether Micron's earnings report can provide satisfactory HBM guidance for investors and whether the PCE can prove that the interest rate hike cycle is not yet over. The adjustment of high-valuation growth stocks has only just begun, not nearing an end.