Bitcoin has temporarily broken below 63.

CN
Phyrex
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2 hours ago

Bitcoin:native has temporarily broken below $63,000, primarily because the historic low of $STRC triggered a lot of panic among investors, especially as the market spread a lot of "anxiety" information, suggesting that Strategy might go bankrupt or be forced to sell Bitcoin to pay interest due to debt issues.

But in reality, this is not the case. Even if STRC continues to decline, it will not cause the preferred shares within the MSTR system to go bankrupt in the short term, nor will it force MSTR to sell Bitcoin to save itself. After all, up to now, MSTR's mNAV value is still greater than 1, currently at 1.14.

And 1.14 means that the ATM can still be financed, as long as MSTR's market value has a premium relative to the net assets of Bitcoin it holds, financing through common stock ATM is logically more reasonable than selling Bitcoin.

Because selling Bitcoin directly reduces the underlying assets, which weakens MSTR's most core narrative and asset foundation. However, ATM financing, although it will dilute common shareholders, can continue to maintain dollar reserves, pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest, and even continue to buy Bitcoin when conditions allow.

Of course, this does not mean that MSTR is completely without risk. The drop of STRC below $85 indicates that the market's required yield for this type of preferred stock is rising, which also shows that investors' confidence in MSTR's capital structure is declining. The lower the preferred stock price, the harder it will be to continue issuing preferred stock in the future, and the financing costs will also be higher.

If BTC continues to decline, MSTR common stock continues to fall, and mNAV continues to decrease, then the efficiency of ATM will also worsen.

But at this stage, to say MSTR will go bankrupt due to the drop in STRC, or that it will immediately sell Bitcoin to pay interest, is still an overreaction. At least from a wood perspective, MSTR's ability to finance is still fine.


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