🚨The roof is leaking right when the rain is pouring, $STRC has seriously depegged, currently reported at $89, a discount of 11%.

Now the focus is mainly on Strategy's own capital structure, and it has not yet fully transmitted to bitcoin:native spot selling pressure.

The market is currently worried about the transmission logic, which is roughly as follows:

1⃣STRC depegging essentially means rising financing costs.

At $100, the company's financing cost was equivalent to 11.5%, now the yield actually demanded by market buyers has changed to: 11.5 / 89 = 12.92%, marginal returns are starting to deteriorate.

2⃣The most vulnerable right now is MSTR equity, roughly calculated:

Strategy currently holds about 846,800 BTC, based on current prices, the reserve market value is approximately $54.6 billion.

But this $54.6 billion does not entirely belong to common shareholders, there are also convertible bonds, preferred stocks, dividend obligations, and cash reserve arrangements in between.

This means that MSTR common stock is not a clean BTC ETF, but rather similar to a residual value option.

If BTC drops 10%, MSTR common stock could potentially drop 20%, 30%, or even more.

3⃣Declining financing ability leads to reduced marginal buying of BTC.

Strategy has been buying BTC recently, having purchased 1,587 BTC in the past week, spending about $100 million, with funds coming from MSTR common stock ATM issuance.

The market's concern is: what cost will it use to continue buying in the future?

If STRC falls below par, financing costs for preferred shares will increase;

If MSTR's stock price drops, dilution from common stock ATM financing will be more severe;

If BTC continues to stay below Strategy's average price, market confidence in its "buy more as it falls" strategy will quickly decline.

4⃣Selling coins to pay dividends, the narrative of public companies hoarding coins begins to shake.

Selling dozens of coins actually has no impact on the market, just the fact is in front of us: BTC has already become the last liquidity backing for its entire capital structure.

Strategy's structural buying of BTC may turn into conditional selling of BTC.

As long as the price stays below $90 for a long time, it becomes very dangerous, and the market will continuously use it for short-selling narratives, which will also spread to other BTC treasury companies and high-premium crypto stocks.

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