Yesterday, the market once again staged an extreme short squeeze, with Bitcoin continuously breaking through the key levels of 66,000 and 67,000, while Ethereum repeatedly reclaimed the integer levels of 1,700 and 1,800, quickly igniting short-term sentiment. However, it is important to note that the rapid rise in prices does not mean that the trend has reversed; currently, it is more of a technical recovery after an overshoot.

From a structural perspective, the biggest characteristic of this round of increase is that altcoins are significantly stronger than Bitcoin. Yesterday, Bitcoin's increase was even less than half that of Ethereum, indicating that funds are starting to tilt towards assets with higher elasticity. This phenomenon often occurs during the recovery phase after a market oversell, rather than at the beginning of a real bull market. Therefore, the strength of altcoins should not be simply equated with a shift to a bullish trend in the overall market.

The biggest focus of the market today is not on the crypto circle itself, but on the policy direction of the Bank of Japan. Recently, the market is highly concerned about whether Japan will further raise interest rates, and the sudden news of the central bank governor's "illness" has added uncertainty to this meeting. If Japan's interest rates continue to approach 1%, it will reach an extremely rare high level not seen in decades. Historically, aggressive interest rate hikes in Japan in 1990 directly burst the asset bubble, leading to a prolonged low-growth cycle lasting several decades. Although the current environment is not completely the same as then, global funds' reliance on yen arbitrage trades far exceeds past levels, and if the policies tighten unexpectedly, global liquidity could be impacted.

Returning to Bitcoin itself, the 4-hour MACD red bars have noticeably shortened, and bullish momentum is showing signs of weakening. Meanwhile, funding rates have sharply declined, and short positions have actually increased, indicating that the market remains cautious about the sustainability of the current rebound.

From a trend perspective, the daily chart has gradually approached the high-level area after continuous repairs. Without the influx of new funds, the difficulty of continuing to expand upward is increasing.

Overall, it currently feels more like the end of a repair after a sharp drop rather than the starting point of a new trend. Although short-term sentiment is strong, the larger bearish structure has not yet changed. Near key pressure areas, one should pay more attention to exhaustion signals after rebounds rather than blindly chasing prices.
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