The current market remains suppressed below the key resistance level on the 4-hour chart, with bulls continuously attempting to rally but failing to achieve a successful breakout. Below is the recently confirmed support area, forming a classic "pressure above, support below" sandwich structure. The market is compressing its fluctuations, waiting for a new catalyst to break the balance.

Last night, the Nasdaq exhibited dramatic movements, opening high and creating an optimistic atmosphere before suddenly turning downward, with an almost 5% range from high to low. Such a level of daily volatility is extremely damaging for risk assets. However, it is worth noting that the crypto market did not experience a panic sell-off simultaneously, nor did it break previous lows, indicating that after a series of sharp declines, some selling pressure has been released.

From a broader perspective, the most critical AI narrative in the U.S. stock market is showing clear signs of bubbling. Funds are continuously concentrating on a few leading companies, and the divergence between valuations and fundamentals is becoming increasingly apparent, with demand for profit-taking at high levels gradually increasing. Behind the Japanese stock market continually reaching historical highs is also accompanied by the "asset price boom" brought about by the continuous depreciation of the yen. When major global markets are simultaneously in a phase of high valuations, high leverage, and high expectations, potential risks are quietly accumulating.

For the crypto market, the most important variable tonight remains the CPI data. After the data is released, the market may instantaneously reprice, making the current majority of technical levels potentially lose their reference significance. Whether support or resistance, both may be quickly breached in the face of macro data.

The funding aspect is also worth paying attention to. Recently, there has been a significant differentiation between BTC and ETH; Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen continuous outflows, while Ethereum ETFs have maintained a net inflow status. This implies that the market is reassessing the value of asset allocations. Therefore, in subsequent operations, one should not simply use the same logic to view BTC and ETH, as they may follow completely different rhythms.

In terms of sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to the extreme fear zone near 15. Historical experience shows that such sentiments often occur near phase bottoms. However, whether the market can truly bottom out never depends solely on sentiment, but on whether funds are willing to flow back in.

Overall, the market has arrived at a critical window before direction selection. Resistance levels are still unable to break, while support levels are temporarily holding; what truly determines the trend for the next phase is no longer technical factors, but the forthcoming macro data and capital flows.
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This article is published by 【Huiying Community】 and represents personal opinions only. Due to delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please exercise rational judgment and conduct cautious operations.
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