The market has once again proven one thing: at the current stage, a tweet from Trump often has a greater impact on short-term trends than a week of technical analysis. With the release of news related to the peace agreement, the market quickly broke out a strong bullish candle. Even if it is just a temporary easing, it is enough to trigger emotional release for a market that has been suppressed for weeks.

However, it is important to remain clear-headed that this round of increase is more about emotional recovery rather than a trend kick-off after large-scale institutional investment. A genuine trend upward must be accompanied by sustained capital inflows and rising demand, rather than relying solely on news stimuli.

From a technical perspective, the market recovery has been running consecutively for four days. The short-cycle structure has significantly improved, but after a series of daily rebounds, it is gradually approaching the high point of this phase. The mid-term structure has not fundamentally changed; MACD is still operating below the zero axis, and the moving average system continues to maintain a bearish arrangement, indicating that there is still pressure in the larger direction.

As for Bitcoin, the ideal trend would be to first confirm support with a pullback before initiating the next round of upward movement. This is because the biggest issue in the market right now is still the funds. Over the past 14 trading days, Bitcoin ETF has seen a cumulative net outflow of over $4.4 billion, indicating that the core logic of incremental capital for this round of bull market has shown significant looseness.

Although recently SpaceX disclosed it holds approximately $1.293 billion in Bitcoin, which has somewhat boosted market confidence, it is the cessation of ETF capital outflow or its re-entry that would truly signify a change in the mid-term trend, rather than news from a single institution.

From on-chain data, last week Bitcoin's total demand fell to -652,000, marking the largest decline since 2022. This price drop did not stem from panic selling, but rather from sustained disappearance of demand leading to a natural retreat. In other words, what the market lacks most now is not capital but buying pressure.

However, it is worth noting that some bottom signals have begun to emerge. The proportion of profitable BTC has gradually approached 45%, a historical critical area; historically, whenever the market enters this range, it often means that emotions are nearing freezing point. At the same time, the Puell Multiple has dropped to around 0.74, with miners' revenues significantly compressed, which historically has also been one of the early signals of the market approaching a phase bottom.

Overall, the market is currently in a very typical contradictory phase:

Short-term sentiment is recovering, mid-term trend remains bearish;
The funding situation has yet to warm up, but bottom signals are accumulating.

What truly determines the subsequent direction is not the bullish news on Twitter, but whether funds return to the market.
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