This is the 40th time that Trump has said the U.S.-Iran agreement should be reached.

Although we are basically immune to what Trump says, this time the progress is more certain than in the past.

On June 14, Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif announced that a peace agreement had been reached between the U.S. and Iran. Trump then confirmed this, stating that the maritime blockade would be lifted, allowing "free passage" through Hormuz. The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister also stated that the text of the agreement had been completed, and that war and military actions would cease immediately, including towards Lebanon.

Asian markets opened on Monday and provided an answer. The main indices in Tokyo and Seoul rose by more than 5% at one point, and oil prices fell by $3 per barrel, with Brent dropping to around $84. The logic is not complex; the geopolitical risk premium that has weighed on energy prices for the past three and a half months is being squeezed out of the market.

While this is not yet a finalized peace agreement. The key signing is set for June 19 in Switzerland, and the interpretations of the agreement by the U.S. and Iran differ. The U.S. says the Strait will be open for free passage, while Iranian media states that maritime traffic will be coordinated and managed by Iran and Oman, restoring it according to "Iranian arrangements" within 30 days. Israel was still attacking Beirut around the time the agreement was announced. Issues like nuclear questions, enriched uranium, and sanctions relief are all hard issues that will push negotiations into the next 60 days.

But we can say more accurately that military conflicts have basically fully transitioned from the military level to the negotiation level.

The importance of Hormuz cannot be overstated. Before the war, about one-fifth of the world's oil and a large amount of LNG passed through this waterway. After U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran used missiles, drones, and maritime restrictions in retaliation, and the Strait gradually changed from a "risky channel" to a "factually obstructed channel." For over three months, the market feared a threefold stalemate: Iran using the Strait as leverage, the U.S. blocking Iranian ports, and the lines drawn by Israel and Hezbollah making it politically difficult for Iran to yield domestically. With these three lines intertwined, no one could move.

Now, the Strait has officially entered the reopening process. AP cites the judgment of energy experts that even if the agreement takes effect, it may take months for oil and gas supplies to return to normal, as shipping, insurance, refineries, demilitarization, and security all require time. Oil tankers that have been stranded in the Persian Gulf will not set sail just because of a statement, and insurance companies and shipowners will not overnight revert their risk assumptions to pre-war conditions.

For us investors, the most important thing is, which financial products can we trade now?

What is the market trading after the Strait reopens?

In the past few months, crude oil, natural gas, shipping insurance, aviation fuel, fertilizers, and inflation expectations have all been given a layer of Middle Eastern risk premium. Now, if the agreement is signed as planned on June 19, and shipping gradually resumes, the first assets affected will be these.

Some current price data reflects this rapidly. MarketWatch reported that after the news of the agreement came out, Dow futures rose more than 350 points, S&P 500 futures rose about 1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 1.6%. WTI fell below $81, and Brent dropped to around $83.5. Axios reported Brent at about $84.21, and U.S. gasoline prices fell from around $4.56 per gallon in May to about $4.07.

To get more specific, what other assets can we trade?

First, short crude oil risk premium. CBA commodity analyst Vivek Dhar provided a judgment in a report quoted by the WSJ: If Hormuz is no longer closed, Brent could fall to around $80 by the end of the year. His key assumption is that as long as oil flow through the Strait recovers to 60% to 70% of pre-war levels, combined with non-OPEC+ supply growth and the existence of some alternative pipelines, the market could return to a supply-loose pricing direction. What does $80 Brent mean? It means the 15 to 20 dollars premium added by war over the past three months will be systematically squeezed out.

Second, go long on airlines, cruise lines, and the tourism chain. Lower fuel costs will restore profit margins, which is the most direct line. IATA previously cut its forecast for net global airline industry profits in 2026 from $41 billion to $23 billion, citing soaring aviation fuel prices. Barron's said IATA expects total aviation fuel costs this year to reach $350 billion. With oil prices dropping from the $90 to $100 range to just over $80, airline stocks are likely to exhibit the most elasticity. Notable targets include the airline ETF JETS, and DAL (Delta Airlines), UAL (United Airlines), AAL (American Airlines), LUV (Southwest Airlines). In the cruise sector, there are CCL (Carnival Cruise), RCL (Royal Caribbean Group), and NCLH (Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings). As of the close on June 12, DAL was at $83.06, UAL at $115.52, AAL at $14.98, LUV at $45.47, CCL at $29.18, and NCLH at $19.43. If oil prices remain low before the U.S. market opens, airlines and cruises are likely to be the first places where pre-market funds flood in.

Third, go long on Asian energy-importing countries. Japan, South Korea, India, and China are direct beneficiaries of lower oil and gas prices from the Middle East. Commerzbank Research mentioned in a WSJ report that Asian currencies strengthened broadly in the morning; the USD/JPY fell to around 159.93, and the USD/KRW fell to around 1505.60, while the AUD rose to around 0.7079. NAB chief economist Sally Auld expressed the view that falling oil prices alleviated inflation pressures for energy-importing countries like Japan, causing Japanese 10-year government bond futures to rise. Trading expressions can be long on Japanese, Korean, and Indian stock indices, or long on currencies and bonds of Asian importing countries.

Fourth, go long on bond duration and short on inflation expectations. Falling oil prices will directly lower the costs of gasoline, aviation, logistics, and some food, and will also lessen market concerns over central banks maintaining high interest rates. One can observe TLT, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, TIPS breakeven, and gold. Gold is somewhat special here: if the market believes that the Strait reopening is genuine, the risk premiums for gold and oil will decline together; if the signing fails on June 19, both will rebound simultaneously. Gold serves as a hedge indicator in this transaction, not a directional indicator.

Fifth, reprice LNG, fertilizers, and the chemical chain. Qatari LNG travels through Hormuz; the reopening of the Strait will compress risk premiums for LNG in Asia and Europe, benefiting gas companies, chemical companies, and some power cost-sensitive sectors. The Middle East is also an important supplier of fertilizers such as urea and ammonia; the restoration of navigation means lower price pressure on agricultural inputs. This line is more macroeconomic and benefits downstream chemical and agricultural cost sectors, without necessarily needing to focus on specific stocks.

Polymarket can be used as a "probability thermometer." The price for the US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 is about 0.84, giving a market probability of 84%. For the US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027, it is about 0.945. The likelihood of the U.S. invading Iran before 2027 is only about 0.115. The chance of Iran achieving nukes before 2027 is about 0.0735. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 is about 0.0065. This set of numbers implies that the probability of a short-term agreement being realized is very high, but long-term tail risks still exist. The market is betting on a thaw but not going all in.

If we were to compile a watchlist for pre-market U.S. stocks, I have also organized some:

First tier, the most direct beneficiaries of fuel cost reduction: JETS, DAL, UAL, AAL, LUV, CCL, RCL, NCLH.

Second tier, beneficiaries of risk appetite recovery, especially small-cap and cyclical stocks: SPY (S&P 500 ETF), QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF), IWM (Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF).

Third tier, companies benefiting from cost reductions but with slower elasticity: FDX (FedEx), UPS (United Parcel Service), DOW (Dow Inc.), LYB (LyondellBasell).

Conversely, XOM (ExxonMobil), CVX (Chevron), SLB, HAL (Halliburton), XLE (Energy Select Sector ETF) are likely to be under pressure in the short term. They were beneficiaries of high oil prices and war premiums before, and with the premium being squeezed out, their logic needs to be recalculated.

Finally, regarding risks. The greatest fear in this trade is not "oil prices have already fallen," but rather "the agreement has not yet been truly executed." The signing on June 19, demining at sea, declining insurance rates, the restoration of passage for shipowners, and the establishment of the coordination mechanism between Iran and Oman—all these segments need to be verified one by one. The key signals to track include: whether Brent can fall below $80, whether WTI can fall below $78, whether airline and cruise stocks can maintain their gains after a high opening, and whether the Polymarket for the Iran agreement can remain above 80%.

If these conditions are simultaneously met, it indicates the market is shifting from "war shocks" to "supply recovery."

If oil prices rebound back to $88 to $90, or if the Polymarket agreement probability drops quickly, it's time to reduce positions in this reopening trade.

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