On the Nasdaq screen, the quote for SPCX had already taken off like a rocket before the official bell rang: the issue price was set at $135 per share, but the pre-market indicative price was once pushed by sentiment to nearly $175, before retreating back to around $150 amid continuous order book reshuffling, still at an approximately 11% premium over the issue price. It wasn't just the price that was volatile, but also the nerves of the exchange — the president of Nasdaq openly stated that SpaceX's IPO needed "a few more hours" to start trading to ensure that the first transaction was "orderly" and achieved "the right price," meaning that global watching funds were forced to endure another round of emotional fluctuations between high expectations and uncertain opening. The market has come to consensus defining this IPO as one of the most highly anticipated technology and AI topics in history, layered with the perception that early liquidity was seen as relatively low, and the valuation controversies waiting to be verified, any gap in liquidity or pricing errors could be amplified into signals of risk preference turning points. The crypto world was not standing on the sidelines: Kraken and Bitget Wallet had previously launched SpaceX equity tokenization or pre-sale products, and the subsequent cancellation and refund process due to insufficient underlying positions exposed the mismatch between the cryptocurrency investors' hunger for this "AI + space infrastructure" asset and traditional financial supply, also indicating that once significant fluctuations appeared on the equity side, this suppressed demand would seek new high-beta outlets. Over the past year, the AI narrative has proven capable of igniting both the US chip and cloud service sectors, as well as on-chain AI-themed tokens, while BTC and ETH have increasingly been seen as high-beta carriers of technology growth risk in institutional perspectives, highly sensitive to shifts in global risk preference represented by such super IPOs. This time, the forced "delayed opening" of the super IPO is becoming a crucial barometer for observing whether global risk preference continues to pay for AI stories and whether BTC, ETH, and AI narrative tokens can continue to serve as important high-beta extensions.

Anxiety Over Risk Control Behind the Delayed Opening

When the president of Nasdaq stepped forward to explain that "a few extra hours" were needed to find "the right price" for SPCX and ensure "orderly" trading, what the market truly read into was not procedural delays, but a concern over the order book spiraling out of control. In pre-market matching, the indicative price of SPCX was once pushed by sentiment to near $175 and then fell back to around $150 amid portfolio adjustments and order cancellations, still reflecting a double-digit premium over the $135 issue price. Against the backdrop of rumors about low free float ratios, such a warm-up rise could easily evolve into price tug-of-war during opening trading stages. For an IPO regarded as one of the highest-profile technology and AI topics in history, the exchange's decision to hit the "pause button" essentially stems from concerns that in the collision of extremely concentrated buying and limited chips, the opening price might be hijacked by sentiment, repeating historical instances where delayed openings and expanded pre-market price ranges were required to "suppress volatility" during high-heat listings.

This time, the goals of risk control are not just about a single new stock, but about the overall volatility management surrounding high-beta assets. Nasdaq is sending a signal to the entire market: in the current liquidity environment, even an AI giant cannot allow its opening price to be distorted by FOMO, "big tickets will also be subject to risk control." For crypto traders, such a signal would directly elevate short-term risk aversion — as traditional markets deliberately suppress volatility to avoid price control, BTC and ETH, as high-beta endpoints on the cross-asset risk chain, find it hard to convince themselves to increase leverage based on "everyone else is pushing higher," with impulses for trading volatility in futures and options being pressed down, and the willingness to chase prices in the spot market cooling accordingly. Before SPCX truly opens, the entire high-risk asset chain has already been pulled tight by risk control.

The Meme-ification of Low Float and High Valuation

If the delayed opening is the brake pressed by risk control, then the pre-market indicative price is the accelerator stepped on by sentiment. With the issue price of SPCX set at $135, the pre-market indicative price was once pushed by sentiment to nearly $175, indicating an immediate premium of nearly 30%. Although it then fell back to around $150, it still reflected about an 11% premium relative to the issue price. Coupled with the general expectation in the market that its free float ratio will remain low initially and the overall valuation standing at a historically high range, this structure of "low liquidity + high valuation + price once losing weight" was quickly branded by crypto influencers as a "real-life meme stock." The logic is straightforward: whether it is SPCX or a batch of low float, high volatility meme coins driven by stories over the past two years, what is being bought is not the current cash flows, but an entitlement to a narrative about AI, space, and new infrastructure.

In such a structure, the intense volatility expectations on SPCX's first day are essentially similar to the market state when a leading meme coin is launched: very few can secure the chips, yet there are many willing to chase higher prices, and the price differential becomes the biggest lure for attracting cross-market "gamblers." In the short term, this real-life meme with low liquidity and high valuation may siphon off some of the aggressive funds that were originally roaming in high-beta on-chain assets — some positions that were originally speculating on long-tail meme coins and knock-offs may be liquidated to participate in the "new narrative premiere" on the US stock side, marginally putting pressure on liquidity and depth in the corresponding sector. The mid-term outlook depends on the path of SPCX post-listing: if the stock price oscillates repeatedly at high levels or even realizes profit in phases, the first-day and early profit-taking might flow back into the risk asset pool, with BTC and ETH, as the high-beta endpoints for technology and growth risk, layered with AI and meme-themed tokens potentially being seen as a secondary battlefield for leveraging returns from this round of real-life meme stocks, thus making SPCX's stock movement a key variable for observing the cadence of risk funds circulating in and out across asset classes.

The AI Infrastructure Narrative Ignites Risk Preference

Before and after the IPO, SpaceX's management has deliberately packaged the company as an "AI infrastructure company," moving away from just "rockets + satellites." Media reports cite President Gwynne Shotwell stating that SpaceX is an infrastructure company and "100% an emerging competitor in the new AI cloud space," a statement that currently remains a single source still waiting for multi-source validation. The market imagines focusing on the Starlink network and the discussed orbital data centers: if low-earth orbit satellite networks are viewed as the new foundation for distributed computing power and data distribution, SpaceX isn't just selling launch services but also standing as the physical entry point in the AI model training and distribution chain, directly integrating SPCX into the valuation framework of "AI infrastructure."

Over the past year, AI-related chips, cloud services, and some infrastructure assets in US stocks have been significantly revalued under similar narratives, with the listing of SPCX naturally viewed by investors as an extension and amplification of this narrative. For the crypto market, the experience is clear: when AI stocks strengthen, on-chain AI-themed tokens are often treated as higher beta follow-on tools; once SpaceX successfully strengthens the "AI + space" story, AI track tokens may again gain funding preference, while BTC and ETH have already been regarded as high-beta endpoints for technology growth risk in institutional perspectives, their pricing will be simultaneously influenced by "macro liquidity tightening" and "AI tech valuation expansion," with the elasticity when risk preferences flow back and the magnification during pullbacks unfolding around SPCX's AI infrastructure narrative.

Tokenization of SpaceX Products Hits the Brake

While SpaceX was still at the "indicative price" pre-market moment, the crypto world's "shadow IPO" had already completed a cycle. Kraken and Bitget Wallet successively launched tokenized products linked to SpaceX equity (such as SPCXx), providing crypto users who could not directly participate in US stocks with circumvention exposure, where on-chain funds were locked in through subscription pools and liquidity pools, waiting for price discovery after SPCX's listing. However, the real bottleneck wasn't sentiment but the underlying positions: these products must rely on custodians and brokers to secure sufficient SpaceX equity in the traditional market, and when the actual distributable shares fall far below the designed scale or do not match the product terms, Kraken and Bitget could only subsequently announce product cancellations and full refunds before and after the IPO, abruptly halting the already ignited sentiment to avoid the structural mismatch of "on-chain token liquidity > off-chain real positions."

This rupture in the chain exposes the structural constraints of RWA and equity tokenization: liquidity seems to be on-chain, but the real bottleneck lies in custody and access to targets; once the supply side gets stuck, the platforms can only prioritize controlling risk rather than catering to speculative enthusiasm. Originally locked in these SpaceX-related products, dollar-pegged tokens and funds were collectively unlocked after the refunds, needing to seek new earnings and narrative carriers in the short term; part of the funds may flow back to BTC and ETH, converting the risk preference of "unable to buy SPCX" into leveraged exposure to high-beta targets, while another part will continue making bets on other event-driven and thematic sectors on-chain, such as RWA products that are easier to access underlying assets, AI narrative tokens, or new rounds of meme themes. This time's forced halt of the SPCXx experiment serves as a warning to all platforms attempting to replicate Wall Street's leading IPOs on-chain: in an environment where sentiment and supply are severely mismatched, whoever dares to amplify structural gaps will first pay the tuition on risk.

The Next Scene for BTC and ETH

From once nearing a $175 indicative price, which was gradually pressed back to around $150, and then forced to delay the opening by a few hours, the "epic" tech and AI IPO of SPCX is sending a clear signal to the market: the short-term pricing of high-valuation growth assets is being re-evaluated, with regulators and exchanges reminding participants that what follows will be more intense volatility rather than linear increases. Looking at the situation, if SPCX quickly gives back any pre-opening premiums or even falls below the $135 issue price upon formal opening, this discount to the "AI myth" will rapidly spread from the Nasdaq and AI sector to the entire market, with high-beta on-chain assets at the forefront — risk premiums for BTC and ETH will rise, high-leverage funds will be forced to reduce positions, and low-volatility altcoins might see their liquidity drained; conversely, if SPCX stabilizes at high levels or even continues to break pre-opening highs on the first day or first week, then "AI + space infrastructure" will be regarded as the core story of a new growth bull market, with tech stocks and crypto markets' AI tracks and meme themes potentially resonating once more, positioning BTC and ETH, as high-beta extensions of technology risk, to seize opportunities from inflow buying. For crypto traders, it is essential to closely monitor several lines: the actual opening price of SPCX and its subsequent volatility trajectory, intraday volatility of the Nasdaq and AI concept sector, capital rotation between on-chain AI narrative tokens and meme coins, as well as the total market capitalization and overall leverage levels of dollar-pegged on-chain fiat assets. Only within the tensions among these metrics can one determine whether BTC and ETH will be seen as amplifiers of the AI bubble or attempt to break out into a more independent macro trend.

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