1. Middle East geopolitical tensions ease: Both Israel and Palestine announced a suspension of mutual attacks under the mediation of U.S. President Trump, leading to a significant rebound in global risk appetite, a drop in oil prices alleviating inflation concerns, providing short-term emotional support for the cryptocurrency market.
2. ETF fund flows fluctuated:
- Yesterday (6/8): BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of $141.5 million, ending 15 consecutive days of net outflow; ETH ETF had a net inflow of $37.7 million.
- Today, as of 12:54: BTC ETF had a net outflow of $91.4 million (BlackRock's IBIT had an outflow of $232.9 million, while Fidelity and other institutions had inflows to hedge); ETH ETF had a contrary net inflow of $82.4 million.
- Cumulatively this week: BTC ETF had a net outflow of approximately $1.4 billion, marking the fourth consecutive week with a weekly outflow exceeding $1 billion, with the trend of institutional fund withdrawal not fundamentally reversing.
3. Key macroeconomic events approaching:
- The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 98.1%, with the market pricing a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, and Goldman Sachs has pushed back the expectation for the first rate cut to June 2027.
- Tomorrow (6/10), U.S. May CPI data will be released; if inflation exceeds expectations, it will further strengthen hawkish expectations, posing the biggest risk this week.
4. On-chain and institutional dynamics:
- After MicroStrategy (MSTR) reduced its holdings by 32 BTC last week, it made a small buy today, signaling slight stabilization.
- Approximately $280 million was liquidated across the network in the last 24 hours, with 90% being long liquidations, and the selling pressure from long positions has not been fully released.
- The cryptocurrency fear and greed index fell to 15 (extreme fear), indicating market sentiment is at a freezing point.


- Market structure: BTC found temporary support around 62,000, but there is dense resistance at 64,500–65,000; ETH remains under strong pressure at 1,750, with the mid-term downtrend unchanged.
- Trading volume: Overall trading volume shrank by 30% compared to yesterday, with strong observation sentiment in the market prior to the CPI data.

3. Impacts and core logic

- Short term (1–2 days): Easing in the Middle East provides emotional support, but the fluctuations in ETF funds and caution ahead of CPI dominate, making it difficult to break the narrow oscillation and weak pattern, with BTC's core operating range at 61,800–64,200.
- Mid-term (1–2 weeks): Tomorrow's CPI data will determine the short-term direction. If CPI is below expectations, combined with ETF fund inflows, the market is likely to see a rebound to 68,000; if CPI exceeds expectations, BTC will likely test the previous low of 59,000.
- Key variables: U.S. May CPI data (6/10 20:30), days of consecutive inflow/outflow of BTC ETFs, Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on June 17, and whether the Middle East conflict restarts.

4. Trading strategy - Contract strategy
- Short-term intraday: Go short high and long low within the range of 62,500–63,500, with a stop loss of 200 points and a target of 300–500 points, avoiding stubborn battles.
- Mid-term layout:
- If stable volume breaks above 64,500, open a light long position, with a stop loss at 63,500 and a target of 68,000.
- If it drops below 61,800 with volume, short the trend, with a stop loss at 62,800 and a target of 60,000–59,000.

Important risk warnings
- If tomorrow's CPI data significantly exceeds expectations, it may trigger a rapid decline in BTC of over $5,000.
- The ceasefire in the Middle East is fragile; if conflict restarts, it may trigger a sell-off in global risk assets.
- If BTC ETF experiences a single-day outflow of over $500 million again, it will break the current weak balance.

5. Today's summary
Today, the cryptocurrency market is caught in a three-way game of geopolitical support, fund pressure, and data observation, primarily resulting in narrow oscillation. It is recommended to maintain light positions and wait for the CPI data to consolidate positions, avoiding blind betting on direction ahead of key points.
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