The current worry about the AI bubble and the doubt about whether a repeat of the internet bubble burst will occur stems from a lack of awareness of the following facts:
1. The PE of leading AI companies is only in the 20s or 30s, which is moderate and even relatively low; during the bubble period, the leading company Cisco had a PE of 150 times — and it was not selling scarce computing power, but routers and network cables.
2. Leading AI companies are continuously achieving record-high revenues, and human demand for AI will only grow; everything has just begun, and the penetration rate in terms of transforming industries and boosting productivity is still very low — can you imagine going back to days without AI? You can't.
3. AI has only been around for a few years, hardware hasn’t been fully deployed yet, and software explosions, application explosions, and productivity explosions are still on the way; in the future, robotics, space exploration, medicine, and quantum computing are all related to AI development.
The typical issue during the 2000 bubble was that a large number of companies lacked profitability, and telecommunications infrastructure was severely overbuilt, with fiber optics, switches, and network capacity running ahead of actual demand.
Today’s situation is quite the opposite: computing power, storage, bandwidth, inference costs, model capabilities, and application scenarios are all rapidly expanding; much of the demand is not absent, but the infrastructure is still not cheap enough, abundant enough, or good enough.
Mindlessly comparing to bubbles or being bearish simply because prices have risen significantly reflects a lack of in-depth research by those missing out, a toxic mindset born from speculation.
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