The market has seen some recovery, calculating based on the lowest point of 59080, currently the recovery has reached the highest point of 64250. The rebound point is sufficient; it just depends on whether it can recover above 65000 in the short term. Many friends are concerned about whether the bearish trend has ended. Lao Cui has consistently maintained a bullish outlook on the larger trend, so I will focus on explaining the approach to contracts. Recently, 80% of the users I have interacted with are concerned about the profit status of contracts, and among this group, most do not engage with spot trading. Lao Cui hopes everyone can understand what I want to explain: do not choose one-directional high-stakes bets on contracts. Whether bullish or bearish, one must have a mindset to concede defeat. Clearly, I have provided bearish options since 80000, and even my own holdings have been shared for everyone to see, yet there are still friends choosing to buy at the bottom. Being bullish does not mean one cannot intervene; opposing the trend increases the probability of losses.

There are also smart friends who started buying at around 60000, and they remind that when buying long, there must be strict profit-taking standards; once profits are made, one must exit. This might be somewhat off-topic, but many friends are worried that the opening of the World Cup will lead to an outflow of funds from the cryptocurrency circle. This concern had also existed for me prior to this decline. However, after this decline has occurred, such worries have actually been dispelled. From a data perspective, the funds that needed to exit have followed the trend and flowed out. Whether in the cryptocurrency market or other financial markets, it’s largely retail investors selling off. Recent data indicates that BlackRock's sell-off has already started to repurchase, and MicroStrategy does not even need to be discussed as it only had 32 tokens flowing out, which does not have much impact from a data perspective, but the impact of public opinion is relatively large. The signals released by Trump suggest that a plan to store a million bitcoins will begin, and the Strategy CEO claims they will continue to increase their Bitcoin reserves and increase their per-share holdings. In the past week, 13,400 BTC has flowed into exchange wallets.

This round of decline, Lao Cui defines as a test, testing market attitudes, the market's capacity to support funds, and also testing everyone's confidence. Bitcoin at the 60000 level can be revisited; everyone can also take a look at the price of U on large platforms. Although affected by the short-term dollar exchange rate, there are still mostly retail investors buying. Within a short time, it surprisingly pushed the price of U to 6.9. Just how strong is their purchasing power? The exchange rate has provided the answer; the retail investors’ ability to support the bottom in the cryptocurrency market, or the confidence of retail investors is still present. From the market analysis, there were two instances of breaking the 60000 level, and two recoveries by more retail investors buying. Only above 60000 is there participation by large funds, but it seems that large funds are less willing to buy the bottom as the attitude suggests that the current bottom level should be lower. Everyone can also observe the exchange rate; it is fundamental, both onshore and offshore have not broken 6.8, while cryptocurrency quotes are at 6.9 or even higher.

Looking from a military perspective, signals of peace are becoming increasingly strong, and peace will only lead to a fall in the earlier military demand, which is a short-term positive for the cryptocurrency market. A drop in oil prices will signal the possibility of interest rate cuts. Therefore, Lao Cui will summarize: the real reversal signal needs several factors to be present. First, observe the opening of the World Cup and the movements in the cryptocurrency market. Second, when Wosh takes the stage, check whether mentions will be made regarding expanding or contracting the balance sheet, as well as signals related to interest rate cuts and increases. Third, observe BlackRock and MicroStrategy's subsequent movements; will there still be an outflow phenomenon? The focus should be on whether MicroStrategy will have outflows; the previous 32 tokens might be a signal of outflow. Lastly, and most crucially, is to persuade oneself not to walk down a dark road with only one direction. One must remember not to only take long positions or only take short positions; the core of contracts is being flexible and variable while being able to recover loses in spot trading. This acts as a hedging effect. And regarding the data performance, as Lao Cui mentioned earlier, as long as it can stabilize in the 63000-65000 range, a rebound signal will likely emerge. For example, today, the SOL chain has once again issued 500 million USDC, which may be a preparation for future rebounds! The prudent view is to wait for signals from Wosh! From Trump's performance, it is highly likely that there won't be any negative signals released (this is just a guess)!

The original text was created by the WeChat account: Chain Science. For assistance, you can contact directly.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。