The market sentiment has fallen into extreme panic.

Written by: Maher, Foresight News

On June 6, BTC momentarily dropped below the $60,000 mark, reaching a low of $59,130. On June 8, Bitcoin's price rebounded to around $63,000. Although the price has rebounded by several thousand dollars, the previous loss of a key integer point has still heavily impacted confidence and sentiment in the crypto market. Currently, its fear index is 15, and market sentiment remains in extreme panic. Most altcoins have also followed suit, experiencing significant declines alongside the broader market.

Is it a bottom-buying zone now? Institutions, traders, and others have shared their opinions.

Glassnode Co-founder: $46,000 to $54,000 is the key bottom range

Glassnode co-founder Rafael stated that Bitcoin has retracted about 50% from its historical high. On-chain data indicates that BTC is currently operating near an important support area formed by the realized price median ($64,100) and the 200-week moving average ($61,700). Historically, Bitcoin has only traded below this level about 7% of the time.

From a long-term valuation model perspective, below the 200-week moving average, the realized price (approximately $54,000), CVDD (approximately $46,200), balance price (approximately $40,000), and Delta price (approximately $35,000) are sequentially distributed. Previous bear market bottoms have touched this cost range before reversing, with CVDD being considered the most accurate bottom anchor historically. According to the current model estimates, $46,000 to $54,000 constitutes a higher probability bottom area, while $35,000 to $40,000 falls under extreme panic conditions and is only present in less than 3% of trading days historically.

However, as the Bitcoin market matures, the amplitude of cycle retracements shows a trend of narrowing. Previous bear market downturns reached maximum declines of 85%, 84%, and 77%, while this round has only dropped about 50% from its historical high so far. This indicates that there remains potential for further declines in the market, but the higher probability bottom may lie in the $46,000 to $54,000 range. If a rebound occurs later, $75,000 to $79,000 will become the first important recovery area, with greater pressure points near the $93,000 50-week moving average and previous historical highs.

NYDIG Global Research Head: AI is siphoning off a lot of crypto funds

NYDIG Global Research Head Greg Cipolaro stated in a research report that he believes the overlap between AI and crypto investors is far greater than many people imagine. Both attract investors seeking exposure to emerging technologies and excess returns. As AI-related stocks continue to outperform the market, capital flows out of the crypto market. Investors are also preparing for what could become the largest tech IPO cycle in years. Quantum computing and Strategy selling BTC have exacerbated market concerns.

Greg Cipolaro's report mentioned that several metrics are approaching levels historically consistent with major bottoms. Bitcoin's MVRV ratio has fallen to 1.2, and the percentage of profitable supply has recently dropped below 50%, another metric often associated with capitulation. However, this retracement is still relatively mild by historical standards. He pointed out that Bitcoin has dropped about 53% from its peak (the $126,000 in October), much less than the 75%-90% retracements in previous cycles. Whether a bottom has formed is likely to depend on whether institutional demand structurally alters the cycle or merely postpones a deeper adjustment.

Standard Chartered Bank Digital Asset Research Head: Bitcoin's bottom is almost formed

Standard Chartered Bank Digital Asset Research Head Geoffrey Kendrick stated that Bitcoin's bottom is "almost formed," and the current price range may be the long-awaited buying opportunity for investors. An important driver of this decline was Strategy selling 32 BTC, but referencing historical experience from the end of 2022, Strategy is likely to soon make a larger-scale buyback, with the repurchase volume possibly reaching 10 times or even 100 times the amount previously sold. If buying pressure is confirmed, it will become an important signal for the market hitting bottom.

Strive CEO: Bitcoin hits the 200-week moving average (the fifth time in history), and the previous four times were perfect bottom-buying opportunities

Matt Cole, CEO of asset management firm Strive, told CNBC Squawk Box Europe that Bitcoin has reached the 200-week moving average (the fifth time in history), and the previous four times were "perfect bottom-buying opportunities." He also emphasized that Bitcoin's fundamentals have "never been this good," viewing this touch of the 200-week moving average as a historic buying opportunity.

Trader Eugene: Has temporarily exited the crypto market to focus on U.S. stocks, will not attempt to bottom-buy Bitcoin again

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated on his personal channel that he has essentially exited the cryptocurrency market since May 13 of this year and shifted his main focus to stock market research. He believes that compared to the current crypto market, the stock market is more attractive in terms of research depth, cognitive challenges, and trading and investment opportunities. Based on his assessment of the industry’s current state, he expects to maintain this strategy for some time, continuing to monitor developments in the crypto industry but not engaging in actual trading.

Eugene further stated that unless the market presents extremely attractive risk-reward opportunities, he has no plans to return to the crypto market, and he has not seen such conditions emerge at this time. He believes that the trajectory of crypto market development is diminishing its appeal as a trading and investment field, so in the short term, he will continue to focus on traditional stock markets. Speaking about Strategy, Eugene believes that the relevant risks are just beginning to emerge. He stated that even if Strategy has sold more Bitcoin recently, it is merely postponing the problem rather than truly resolving it. Until the high correlation between Strategy and Bitcoin is broken, he is not optimistic about Bitcoin's long position opportunities. Regarding the market bottom position, he admitted he could not make a judgment but that he is no longer attempting to engage in "catching the falling knife" bottom trading.

Trader Killa: Now is a standby buying opportunity

Trader Killa tweeted during Bitcoin's drop on June 6 that now is a generational buying opportunity. On June 8, he stated that BTC has entered the "final phase" and "final extension," having invested 90% of his position. Additionally, Killa noted that the "protective buy wall" that appeared during the weekend crash has yet to be removed, and he believes the likelihood of quickly reaching those support levels in the short term is low. Killa is a quantitative trader focusing on BTC and had predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025.

Analyst Darkfost: Bitcoin has entered an extremely undervalued zone

Analyst Darkfost's data shows that Bitcoin has fallen below the 4% quantile in the Power Law model, entering an extremely undervalued range, historically only 4% of the time at this valuation level. Darkfost emphasized that this is an appropriate time to build long positions, not for short-term price predictions.

Polymarket data: Probability of BTC dropping below $55,000 is 72%

The latest data from Polymarket shows that the probability of BTC dropping below $45,000 is 41%, below $50,000 is 56%, and below $55,000 is 72%. The probability of dropping below $40,000 is 31%, and the probability of dropping below $35,000 is only 21%.

Most market participants currently believe that the probability of BTC dropping below $35,000-$40,000 is low.