1. Macro: Non-Farm Payroll Surprises + Escalation of Middle East Conflict
- The U.S. May non-farm employment exceeded expectations, with the market pricing a 63% probability of a rate hike in December, the dollar strengthened, and tech stocks evaporated over $1 trillion in a single day, with risk assets declining broadly.
- Iran's missile attack on U.S. military bases heightened geopolitical risk, with funds favoring the dollar and gold, suppressing cryptocurrencies.
2. Institutions: BTC ETF Continues to Bleed + Strategy Sells Coins for the First Time
- On June 5, the BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $325.7 million, with a cumulative outflow of $4.58 billion over 30 days, as institutions continued to sell.
- The listed company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold 32 BTC (approximately $2.5 million) for the first time in four years, shaking the "never sell" faith, which undermined market confidence.
3. On-chain/Projects: ZEC Vulnerability Fix Rebounds + ETH Whale Accumulates
- Zcash (ZEC) previously exposed an infinite minting vulnerability, and after the fix, it rose by **9.67%** to $412 in 24 hours, alleviating panic.
- ETH co-founder Lubin's wallet transferred 110,000 ETH (approximately $170 million) to MakerDAO for accumulation, avoiding a large liquidation and temporarily stabilizing DeFi risk.
4. Market Structure: Extreme Fear + Frequent Liquidations
- The Fear and Greed Index is at 12 (Extreme Fear), with BTC's dominance rising to 53.1%, as funds cluster around Bitcoin and avoid altcoins.
- In the past 24 hours, 130,000 people were liquidated, totaling $425 million; cumulative liquidations this week exceeded $7 billion, with concentrated margin calls.

Core Impact
1. Short-term (1-3 days): High volatility, low-level oscillation. Macro interest rate hike expectations + Middle East conflict suppress rebound space; ETF outflows + the shadow of institutional coin sales make it hard for BTC to break $65,000, with $1,750 for ETH being strong resistance.
2. Medium-term (1-4 weeks): De-leveraging and increased differentiation. High-leverage funds continue to exit, with altcoin liquidity drying up; BTC remains relatively resilient, with dominance further increasing, the strong continuing to be strong.
3. Long-term: Valuation Restructuring, Institutional Wait-and-See. If the Federal Reserve's rate hike materializes + geopolitical easing, BTC may bottom at **$55,000-$60,000; otherwise, the probability of dipping to $50,000 increases.**

Trading Strategy

Contracts (extremely light positions, short-term quick trades)

- Direction: Mainly bearish, short on rebounds.
- BTC: Short at 62500-63500, stop-loss at 64500, target 60000-59500.
- ETH: Short at 1630-1660, stop-loss at 1700, target 1520-1500.
- Position: Contracts ≤ 5%, absolutely prohibited to over-leverage or hold positions.

3. Risk Hedging/Control (Top Priority)
- Pay attention to key signals: ETF fund flow, Middle East situation, speeches from Federal Reserve officials.

Five, Key Focus for Tomorrow
- 20:30: U.S. CPI data (affects interest rate hike expectations)
- Institutional Funds: BTC ETF net inflow/outflow
- On-chain: ETH staking unlock, DeFi liquidation data
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