After reaching a new low in the market yesterday, there was no further panic selling, but rather a continuous recovery phase. From a short-term structural perspective, Bitcoin has taken the lead in completing a one-hour level recovery, and Ethereum has also basically followed suit this time, which is a rare synchronized recovery phenomenon since this round of decline. More notably, a clear upward structure has emerged on the 15-minute cycle for the first time, indicating that the strength of the short-term bears is beginning to weaken, and the market is attempting to build a phase bottom.

Looking at the current rhythm, the probability of continuing the recovery today is still quite high. After continuous declines, the oversold sentiment has accumulated to a significant level, and there is a noticeable demand for short-term capital replenishment. Currently, the two-hour cycle has become the first important pressure during the rebound process, while the previously broken one-hour structure has begun to transform into a retest support area. As long as the support is not broken again, there is a basis for the recovery trend to continue.

However, it is important to note that the overall market is still under a bearish dominant pattern. It has gradually evolved from the previous stage of "weak bulls" to the "accelerated spread of bears" phase. The moving average system still maintains a bearish arrangement, and the trend has not truly reversed.

At the same time, the bearish arrangement coexists with extreme oversold conditions, which is itself a contradictory structure. Because after every extreme decline, a significant amount of technical recovery demand will accumulate. In other words, the short-term bears still have the initiative, but as the degree of overselling deepens, along with the appearance of capital defense near the long-term moving averages, the possibility of marginal changes in the market is gradually increasing.

Overall, what matters most in the current market is not predicting the bottom but observing whether the recovery can gradually transmit from the 15-minute and one-hour levels to higher cycles. Once the two-hour level is effectively broken, the rebound space is expected to further open up; conversely, if the recovery strength exhausts again, there is still a possibility for the market to retest the lows.
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This article is originally published by [Huiying Community], representing only personal views. Due to certain delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please judge rationally and operate cautiously.
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