Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macroeconomic Market

On Thursday, Trump claimed that ceasefire negotiations were at the “final critical stage of ending the war with Iran,” but conflicting signals from parties in the Middle East left the market feeling exhausted, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil both falling over 3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 1.73%, reaching a historical closing high after just one trading day; meanwhile, the Nasdaq index fell slightly by 0.09% after experiencing a deep "V" shake, and the S&P 500 index ended basically flat.

Expectations for interest rate cuts remain unclear, as Federal Reserve officials strike a cautious tone. Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, emphasized that current policies are in a suitable range and warned that too much forward guidance may ultimately be misleading. According to economists' forecasts, the non-farm employment data for May, to be released on Friday at 20:30, is expected to show an increase of 85,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%. Additionally, the Federal Reserve will hold its first interest rate meeting on June 18 under newly appointed chairman Waller, and CME data shows that the market expects the Fed to maintain interest rates between 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive month in June. Freedom Capital Markets strategist Jay Woods warned that if the upcoming non-farm data is stronger than expected, the “high interest rate era” may extend; if the data is weak and the unemployment rate approaches 4.5%, the market may re-bet on future rate cuts.

South Korea's stock market was hit hard, with the KOSPI index plummeting over 6% and triggering a trading halt for 5 minutes due to circuit breaker rules. The Korean stock market had previously surged by 105%, but concerns over a narrow market breadth arose. Data shows that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together account for 54% of the KOSPI market capitalization, making them major drivers of market volatility. Meanwhile, retail investor participation and brokerage deposits have recently decreased. The chief investment officer of Seoul Eugene Asset Management predicts that in the coming one to two months, the Korean stock market could enter a period of increased volatility and consolidation.

AI and the Stock Market

The myth of AI wealth creation is facing real challenges, as the semiconductor sector has seen significant pullbacks due to overcrowded trading, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index closing down over 2%. Broadcom's latest revenue guidance failed to meet the market's inflated AI expectations, with its stock price plunging over 12% in a single day, dragging down Micron Technology by more than 7.7%, while Arm and AMD dropped over 4% and 3% respectively. South Korean chip giants SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were especially hard hit, plummeting more than 9% and 7% respectively.

In the face of the crash, Siebert Financial's chief investment officer Mark Malek noted that while demand and capital expenditure in the AI field are real, the market's valuation of AI concept stocks has far exceeded actual growth expectations, with stock prices clearly too high. Matt Maley from Miller Tabak admitted that this is a “healthy adjustment” for the chip stocks, which have risen parabolically since March.

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio also warned that the AI market is showing typical bubble characteristics, including high valuations, rampant speculation, and “paper wealth” far exceeding actual cash flow. He predicts that the bursting of the AI bubble will lead to the disappearance of some companies, but the impact of AI technology on the economy and society will persist.

Additionally, American AI giant Anthropic has issued a warning that the “recursive self-improvement” capability of AI systems could pose significant risks to society and has called on the world's leading labs to slow their development pace. Despite some questioning the potential motivation of restricting competitors or promoting its technology, this warning has intensified market concerns about the potential uncontrollable risks of AI technology.

Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin has been in a continuous decline recently, accumulating a drop of over 20% over the past 10 days, with prices dipping to a four-month low of $61,100. Notably, Bitcoin has now fallen to the key 200-week moving average (approximately $61,821), marking its first touch since 2023, and this core point proved to be a highly oppressive resistance level during the brutal bear market of 2022.

The market seems to be replaying the brutal scene of 2022: in June 2022, Bitcoin plummeted by 37.28%, while from June 2026 to the present, it has already dropped over 15%. Currently, a total of 10.5 million Bitcoins are in an unrealized loss state, with only 9.8 million in profit, and the RSI indicator is nearing its deepest oversold range since 2020. Coupled with professional investors significantly reducing their ETF exposure by 17% (52,000 coins) in the first quarter, along with whales and institutions like Abraxas Capital continuously selling BTC, market liquidity is under extreme pressure. Currently, Bitcoin's focus is on whether it can ultimately hold the recent low of $60,000 and the support of the 200-week moving average.

Bearish Perspectives

The core logic of the bearish camp lies in the exhaustion of macro liquidity and the breakdown of micro supports, believing that the current rebound is merely a long position trap after a leverage washout, and that the market has not yet reached the true pain threshold.

• Atlas CEO Reza Bundy (supported by “Doctor Doomsday”): Bitcoin has failed as an inflation hedge and may plummet 70% to the $26,000-$30,000 range within the next six months.

• Bloomberg analyst/zeroxkyle: Strategy faces tightening liquidity, and its preferred stock STRC falling below par may trigger a buy exhaustion “doomsday loop,” further exacerbating panic selling.

• Peter Schiff: The market has not yet bottomed out; if it falls below $50,000, long-term holders’ confidence will be completely shattered, and the price may swiftly plunge below $20,000.

• Daan Crypto Trades: The major downtrend has continued since last October, and the current battle is focused on whether the support at $60,000 and the 200-week moving average can ultimately be held.

• CryptoFrog: The current trend is startlingly similar to the sharp drop below $83,000 months ago; if the final support at $62,400-$63,600 is broken, a flash crash to new bear market lows of $52,000-$48,000 could replay.

• Jim Ferraioli (Charles Schwab): Bitcoin is losing its momentum trading dominance, as funds are being mercilessly pulled toward IPOs and AI stocks with monstrous valuations like SpaceX, leading to a liquidity crisis in the crypto market.

• Darkfost (CryptoQuant analyst): The proportion of Bitcoin supply held at a profit has dropped to 55%, nearing the 50% bear market threshold, presenting a very clear bearish signal in the short term.

• Crypto Raven: It is expected to drop another 35% to $53,000, but buying for the next bear market rebound and implementing dollar-cost averaging strategies has already begun.

Bullish Perspectives

The bullish camp is looking for faith in the laws of historical cycles, believing that the extremely brutal washout and reaching the core moving averages at the bottom of the cycle represent excellent opportunities for left-side positioning.

• Barchart: Bitcoin has dropped to the 200-week moving average; data from history shows this is often an excellent buying opportunity.

• ColinTalksCrypto: Touching the 200-week moving average is a key milestone; given the recent steep decline, there is a high probability Bitcoin will experience a strong rebound here.

• Michaël van de Poppe: The daily RSI has reached the deepest oversold zone; as long as Strategy's preferred stock can bounce back, this is the golden area for steadfast believers to accumulate positions.

• The Wolf Of All Streets: The number of Bitcoins with unrealized losses exceeds those with profits; this crossover has historically always coincided with major bear market bottoms, and we are extremely close to the bottom.

• BitcoinHabebe: The bottoms of previous major cycles have all fallen accurately between the 200-week and 300-week moving averages ($61,000 to $54,000 currently); if history repeats itself, patience is required for dollar-cost averaging.

• Geoffrey Kendrick (Standard Chartered): After the recent big drop, “the bottom has almost appeared”; the $63,000 range is an excellent buying area, and there hasn’t been a concentrated redemption of ETF funds, maintaining a year-end target of $100,000.

• RidaaXBT: The exhaustion of shorts after the leverage washout will drive Bitcoin to make a releasing rebound towards the $69,000-$70,000 range.

• ZordXBT: Long wicks indicate strong buying at low levels, showing signs of a bottom.

• Killa: June 5 is an important cycle hinge that has been maintained for 19 months; if sentiment stabilizes after extreme bearishness and recovers the $65,000 lows, it will rise towards the $68,000-$69,000 area.

Key Data (as of June 5, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

• Bitcoin spot ETF: +$3.0468 million, first net inflow after 13 days of net outflow

• Ethereum spot ETF: +$19.3019 million, first net inflow after 17 days of net outflow

• HYPE spot ETF: +$12.1494 million

• SOL spot ETF: -$278,500
  XRP spot ETF: +$3.8344 million

• Fear and Greed Index: 12 (Extreme Fear)

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: WLD, XRP, BTC, ETH, NEAR

• Sector performance: Cryptocurrencies fell across the board, with DePIN, L2, DeFi, AI, RWA plummeting by 10%

In the past 24 hours, a total of 244,041 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of $1.146 billion, including $356 million in BTC, $292 million in ETH, and $49.71 million in SOL.

Today's Outlook

• Binance will upgrade its stock trading system on June 6, during which trading will be suspended

• 0xPPL will stop its trading function starting June 6 and completely shut down by June 30

• Aave applies to unfreeze $71 million in ETH, with a hearing on June 5

• US May non-farm employment change (thousands): expected 85, previous value 115 (June 5, 20:30)

• US May unemployment rate: expected 4.3%, previous value 4.3% (June 5, 20:30)

• Opinion (OPN) will unlock approximately 32.09 million tokens on June 5, worth about $4.4 million

• Jensen Huang will meet with the chairman of LG Group on June 5

The largest declines among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: Zcash down 43.1%, LAB down 36.3%, Venice Token down 21.1%, Cardano down 18.3%, Ethena down 18.2%.

Hot News

• Zcash founder reveals details of severe Orchard forging vulnerability, stating that “the likelihood of exploitation is low”

• A new wallet has increased its holdings by about 140,000 HYPE, buying over 900,000 HYPE in the past 3 days

• “7 Siblings” related wallets purchased 32,900 ETH, while another whale that had been silent for three years sold 10,000 ETH

• Robinhood has launched trading for three new tokens: BAT, FLR, STRK

• A wallet associated with Arthur Hayes deposited 85,714 HYPE into Bybit

• BlackRock transferred 5,212 BTC and 20,000 ETH to Coinbase Prime

• SpaceX commenced its IPO roadshow, intending to issue 556 million shares at $135

• a16z has accumulated 155,000 HYPE over the past 14 hours, having bought and held approximately 6.754 million HYPE

• Multicoin Capital deposited 56.12 million ENA to Galaxy Digital and BitGo, approximately $5.28 million

• New stock market caller Serenity is bottoming ETH and BTC-related ETFs, but only for short-term swings

• Near Intents TVL reached a new high, with over $600 million in trading volume in the past 7 days

• Abraxas Capital continues to reduce its BTC holdings by 1,469 coins, having cumulatively reduced 2,469 coins in just over a day

• Charles Schwab launched a round-the-clock crypto futures trading service covering BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP futures

• Bitmine follows Strategy's financing model, issuing preferred stock with an annual dividend yield of 9.5%

• Cryptocurrency venture capital monthly trading volume has dropped to a five-year low

• HYPE price of Hyperliquid surpasses Solana, with SOL price falling to its lowest level since 2023

• Variant completed a fundraising of $220 million for its fund, betting on the era of AI and cryptocurrency “autonomous economies”

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