After experiencing consecutive sharp declines, the market has finally recorded a representative long lower shadow. Although it cannot be said that there is a trend reversal at the moment, it at least indicates that panic selling is gradually easing. Last night, the market did not experience another series of sharp drops, and clear signs of a bottom are beginning to appear, indicating that funds are starting to attempt to absorb chips at low levels.
However, it is necessary to view the situation objectively. The current market is still in a typical bearish structure. The damage caused by continuous declines will not be immediately repaired by a long needle; what really needs to be observed is whether market confidence can recover in the following days, and whether funds are willing to continue flowing back. Once trading volume and momentum expand in sync, the bullish corrective trend will have the foundation to continue further.
Historically, when the market experiences a decline close to a halving level, there is often a significant technical rebound. The question is not whether there will be a rebound, but how far it can go. For the current market, as long as a daily-level rebound can form, there is considerable room for recovery in the weekly structure.
From the Bitcoin structure, the decline this week is about 13.5%, marking the worst weekly performance since 2026. Compared to the historical high of approximately 128,000 USD in October 2025, the current price is nearing the halving zone. The daily MACD has been running continuously below the zero line, and the RSI is only around 21, indicating that the market is still dominated by bears, but it has also entered a deeply oversold area.
The 4-hour RSI once fell to the extreme oversold range of 15-18, and short-term technical rebound demand is rapidly accumulating. Although the hourly level has shown some signs of recovery, the price is still under pressure from moving averages, and the rebound process is not smooth. Meanwhile, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has for the first time shown symbolic asset reduction, further undermining market confidence, causing each rebound to encounter significant selling pressure.
From a technical perspective, if the subsequent rebound materializes, then several key resistance areas need to be closely monitored. The first important resistance level in the market is around 65,275, followed further up by the 67,716 area. Only by breaking through these key resistances can the bullish corrective trend have a chance to extend to higher cycles.
Overall, the market has gradually transitioned from a "panic踩踏" phase to a "consolidation building bottom" stage. Short-term rebound demand is accumulating, but the trend still leans bearish. In such an environment, opportunities often come from patiently waiting rather than hastily trying to catch the bottom.
24-hour Tencent meeting live room: 759-223-4196
This article is published by 【汇盈社区】originally, and only represents personal views. Due to the delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please judge rationally and operate cautiously.
If you want to receive more timely daily market analysis and strategy ideas, feel free to add Safew's contact information, or add three lines: MY89080, to join the group for free learning.
The community has 15 professional analysts who monitor the market live all day. Here, you can not only learn technical analysis methods in practical situations but also systematically understand the ideas for解套 and risk control systems.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
