The market has been declining sharply, and many friends are urging updates on the subsequent trends. Today, I will continue to have a simple discussion; those who are anxious for updates are mostly recent users who have been paying attention. You can also look back at Lao Cui's previous articles; he talked about mid-term support after breaking eighty thousand, which is merely situated at the threshold of sixty-five thousand. If seventy thousand cannot be sustained, the biggest problem is the connection of funds. Currently, whether in the cryptocurrency circle for retail investors or capital, there has not been an accumulation of capital, and the mid-term breakthrough is just to serve the drop in this round. During the downward process, many users are thinking about how to salvage the situation and enter for bottom-fishing. Everyone's mentality needs to shift to go with the trend and primarily short during the decline. A new short-term low for Bitcoin has already formed, situated at 65359, with both positive and negative news pushing hard. The biggest negative news is simply the selling by giants; what everyone needs to consider now is not about where the new low will be.

Think about why giants like BlackRock and MicroStrategy choose to sell? The whole logic provided an answer back in May. The Americans first let it be known that the tokenization of U.S. stocks was hindered, which led to the subsequent selling events by giants. These events are beyond our previous estimations, but the market trend remains the same as we predicted; the process from eighty thousand to sixty-five thousand is expected. To put it bluntly, even without such explosive news, the market would still choose to move this way – it’s just that the giants’ selling has made the movement more intense. At the same time, Lao Cui also shares his view that it is still very difficult to set a new low; 65359 might become the support for this round of decline. The view supporting a bullish run is also very distinct; BN chose to go public, and this wave of good news for BNB has been largely digested by negative factors, while domestically there is also research on regulations in the cryptocurrency circle, which can be seen as a concession in terms of risk control.

It is also because of the combination of these factors that many friends have lost direction; don't always think the cryptocurrency market will crash during the decline, it's not a big problem. As long as it stays above sixty thousand, this decline is still within our predicted range, and an upward fluctuation will be the direction at a mid-term level, which will not change within this year. The points that need your focus now, Lao Cui also provides his inner expectations; the World Cup and SpaceX's IPO are both smokescreens. The real core issue is the first FOMC meeting after Powell takes office. The meeting is scheduled for June 16-17. Lao Cui predicts there might be a start on balance sheet reduction, but interest rates will not rise. The market will still remain sluggish for 1-2 months, with uncertain declines. Meanwhile, the issues to be resolved in these two months are the final solutions to the Middle East events; can oil prices return to normal? The timeline suggests that the main event in the cryptocurrency circle will only arrive from September to December, and the interest rate reduction segment will likely occur, with various good news emerging.

Lao Cui summarizes: From a short-term perspective, the market has shown some stabilizing signals, which are not strong enough to warrant deeper analysis. During this downward phase, spot trading is worth testing, but contracts should not be easily bought long. Lao Cui has repeatedly mentioned the strategy for executing short positions, yet some still attempt to go long. The cost of testing long positions is too high; even if you enter, it can only be in the form of spot. Do not think there will still be 30-40 thousand Bitcoin; remember that prior to MicroStrategy selling 32 Bitcoin, on May 18, there was a purchase of 24,869 Bitcoin, valued at 2.014 billion, and even now, MicroStrategy still has 700 million dollars on its balance sheet. They are not in a situation of insolvency yet. Lao Cui feels this is more of a test, aimed at making prices even lower. They want to crash the price; if they only sell 32 coins, the issue might be to induce everyone to sell. MicroStrategy’s holding cost is still at the high level of 75,000, so everyone can feel a bit more at ease. At the end of this piece, recently, there have been many personal events for Lao Cui, so updates are not timely. Please take the articles as mid-term references mainly, and for specific contract operations, ask Lao Cui directly. Remind everyone, this wave of decline may have already reached its end.

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