On November 14th, I publicly shifted bearish on Bitcoin.

From one of the loudest bulls from $30k to $126k, I had to switch into a bearish stance based on the objective data and my 10+ years of experience with TA.

But, despite flipping bearish BTC, I reiterated a bullish view on stocks.

Most people thought this was a contradiction.

I told them to embrace nuance.

Bitcoin had invalidated its uptrend.

The S&P 500 hadn't invalidated its uptrend.

I even acknowledged that there was a significant risk that I'd be wrong on one (or even both) of my stances:

• Bullish U.S. stocks

• Bearish on Bitcoin

As it turns out, I've been right on both.

Look at this chart of BTC/SPY, tracking the relative performance of Bitcoin vs. the S&P 500...

This represents a pair trade and also an opportunity cost of owning Bitcoin rather than the S&P 500.

Since November 14th, BTC/SPY is down -37%.

It's also on the verge of making new lows on a relative basis.

This is important because it represents an increasing short-term opportunity cost for owning Bitcoin in a downtrend while stocks are still in an uptrend.

In plain English, BTC/SPY is still in a downtrend.

Downtrends produce lower lows and lower highs.

I don't know when this downtrend will end.

I don't know the magnitude with which it will persist.

All I know is that it's a downtrend.

Objectively, that's the only conclusion.

As investors, we must have a bias.

By definition, to be long, to be short, or to sit on cash, that is a bias.

Both actions and also inaction are the representation of bias.

So when we look at this chart of BTC/SPY, we see unequivocal evidence of a structural downtrend... and I think investors should accept this and develop a bias to optimize their strategy going forward.

BTC/SPY peaked in July 2025.

It failed to produce a higher high in October 2025, while BTCUSD was making new all-time highs.

It has continued to make lower lows and lower highs since mid-2025.

And here we are in the middle of 2026...

On the verge of downtrend continuation (breakdown to new lows).

If this is setting up for another capitulation, then I am going to step in and buy aggressively...

Why?

Because that's the optimal strategy for assets in a cyclical downtrend within a macro uptrend.

I buy your moment of fear, once excessive sell pressure arrives.

It's exactly what I did in February when I bought more Bitcoin for the first time since selling in November 2025 at $97k.

And I'll continue to execute that strategy so long as Bitcoin stays in a downtrend, on both an absolute and relative basis (BTCUSD and BTC/SPY or BTC/QQQ).

I laid all of this out in November in my Bear Market Playbook.

If you didn't get that report, let me know and I'll send it over to you and discuss next steps.

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