On May 31, 2026, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes threw out a provocative question on X—“Are we dreaming big enough?” In his words, “this list of mostly dogshit coins,” Hayes specifically named the Hyperliquid token HYPE and the Solana token SOL, stating bluntly that HYPE should at least surpass SOL's market value before the end of this bull market. The issue is that, at the time of the post according to Coingecko data, HYPE had a market capitalization of about $15.04 billion, while SOL was around $47.73 billion, meaning the former was only slightly above a third of the latter, with a gap of nearly $30 billion between them. This indicates that if Hayes's “target price” is to be understood solely in terms of market capitalization, HYPE would need to achieve nearly three times its current performance to reach that goal. Such a high-profile statement quickly consolidated a previously scattered discussion into a dividing line: on one side are the bold dreamers who consider Hayes's optimism a magnifying glass on the perp DEX story; on the other side are the conservatives who focus on the differences between L1 narratives and perp DEX use cases, questioning why a token centered on perpetual contract exchanges should surpass SOL, which represents the public chain ecosystem and the value of block space in this cycle. This divide is determining the pricing of every chip that follows.

Hayes declares: HYPE must surpass SOL

The spark for this debate comes from Hayes himself. On May 31, 2026, he directly shared a screenshot on X, under a list of top-ranking tokens, writing: “Are we dreaming big enough? Looking at this list of mostly dogshit coins, I think $HYPE should at a minimum overtake $SOL before this bull run is over.” The phrase “mostly dogshit coins” nearly swept all projects on the list besides HYPE and SOL into the trash heap, then he brought up HYPE to explicitly demand it “at least” surpass SOL in market capitalization, turning a previously mild “can it catch up” into a stark “how dare you not dream bigger.”

In the face of numbers at the time, this statement carried even more provocation: according to Coingecko data, when Hayes made the post, HYPE's market cap was about $15.04 billion, while SOL was about $47.73 billion, with the former only slightly exceeding a third of the latter. There was a gap of over $30 billion in market capitalization between them. One is a token centered on perpetual contract exchanges; the other is a legacy asset representing L1 public chain block space and ecological value. To describe such a gap as a “minimum target” is, in itself, like firing a shot at the market's risk appetite and imagination. More crucially, the person making this statement is not an ordinary retail investor, but BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who has been immersed in the crypto market for years—this means that every time he publicly takes a stand, it is naturally amplified into a narrative signal, providing emotional ammunition to HYPE supporters and forcing bystanders to reassess whether participating in the bet of “overcoming SOL” is worth it. In an emotionally driven cycle, such a statement often sways the direction of chips more than a heavy report.

One-third market cap: HYPE pursues a $30 billion gap

When the emotional slogan is laid out in numbers, the dimensions of the gap truly become clear: according to Coingecko, when Hayes issued “Are we dreaming big enough?”, HYPE's market cap was around $15.04 billion, while SOL's was about $47.73 billion, with the former only equating to slightly over a third of the latter. There is more than a $30 billion market cap gap between them, and financial media succinctly summarized it—if HYPE wants to catch up, it must achieve over three times its current increase, or hope for a substantial market cap correction in SOL itself, only then would nominal “flipping” be possible on the scoreboard.

For funds, this scale is not as simple as “double it.” To push HYPE from $15 billion towards nearly $50 billion means continuously attracting billions in new buying power and enduring the resulting enlarged volatility exposure: the larger the scale, the harder it is for each large order to enter and exit without leaving a mark on the market, each increase requires more real money, and the price gradient during a pullback is longer and more severe. Under such a weight difference, supporters see the imagined space for high returns, while skeptics focus on capital efficiency, liquidity depth, and potential pullback magnitude, all these real constraints determine whether this chasing is a worthwhile high-risk gamble or merely a grandiose claim that can only exist on social media.

L1 vs perp DEX: What is valuation based on?

By taking “catching up to SOL” as a goal, HYPE has entered a misaligned comparison. SOL represents the price of the block space of an entire public chain: developers deploy applications on it, projects issue tokens to create ecosystems; all bets on future traffic and narratives ultimately need to purchase computing power, bandwidth, and living space with SOL. It is more like the land certificate of a city, with its market cap mixed with infrastructure premiums, imaginative potential, and competitive positioning across the entire L1 space. Hyperliquid is defined as a decentralized exchange for perpetual contracts, and the HYPE token closely aligns with the specifics of the exchange business: trading volume, transaction fees, and platform growth expectations are what the market will naturally look for as valuation anchors.

This is why, after Hayes placed HYPE and SOL on the same list, the critiques mentioned in research briefs rapidly surfaced: is it dismissive to use the L1 market cap metric, which includes ecosystem and block space, to demand a perp DEX token complete a “flip”? Supporters value the upward trajectory of Hyperliquid as an exchange and the perceived links between HYPE and business revenues; while conservatives insist that L1 and perp DEX should not be measured with the same yardstick, the former sells the “foundations” and the future of the entire area, while the latter sells the intensity and duration of “intramarket competition.” In this context, discussing who surpasses whom is, in fact, a debate about whether a valuation system that crosses projects and sectors can be violently unified.

The dreamers' bet: revenue story and Hayes's halo

In the eyes of dreamers, it is not important whether L1 and perp DEX belong on the same valuation sheet; what's key is that Hyperliquid is portrayed as a “money-making machine.” Research briefs mention that the market generally believes Hyperliquid's revenue performance is strong, and some optimists further spread within the community that “it has high revenue, aggressive buybacks, and is even close to or surpassing SOL on some metrics.” These specific claims are still at the validation stage but are enough to support an imagined narrative: if HYPE's cash flow story can continue to unfold, and given that current HYPE is about $15.04 billion, merely a third of SOL's approximately $47.73 billion, then the flip is no longer “impossible,” but rather a high-beta repricing opportunity. In this script, “how much does the project earn—how much will be used to buy back—market cap will inevitably increase” becomes a chain of logic. Supporters know the detail data may not be rigorous but are eager to first bet on a direction and gradually align reality with the narrative.

Hayes's involvement has pushed this originally limited optimism narrative onto a larger stage. His statement on X, “Are we dreaming big enough?”, combined with a mocking tone of “this list of mostly dogshit coins,” identifies HYPE and SOL's market cap comparison while packaging “daring to think bigger” as a position choice: to continue holding a basket of what he calls “garbage coins,” or to shift towards a few tokens he approves. Research briefs point out that originally classified as “bold but possible,” the “HYPE flips SOL” scenario quickly spread across social media after this public endorsement. Market participants who preferred to bet on “flip stories” found it easier to shift attention from top assets to lower-tier market capitalizations, while HYPE happened to lie in this area with both a gap and imaginative space.

Three times the journey is long: HYPE long-short bets at the end of the bull market

Regarding the question of whether “HYPE can flip SOL's market cap in this bull market,” both sides have already taken their positions: one side bets on Hyperliquid's potential income and growth story as a perp DEX, believing that as long as trading volume and narratives continue to expand, it is just a matter of time before HYPE catches up or surpasses SOL; the other side, starting from usage cases and valuation anchors, insists that L1 and perp DEX tokens are fundamentally different, arguing that using the same yardstick for pricing or even requiring HYPE to cross its current market cap of about one-third and fill in the gap of roughly $30 billion is a risky gamble due to misalignment in the fields. Research briefs also remind that specifics on HYPE's revenue share, buyback ratio, whether FDV has approached or surpassed SOL on certain metrics, and Hayes's past position changes remain unverified information, incapable of serving as concrete evidence. Furthermore, Hayes’s given timeframe of “before the end of this bull market” introduces another layer of uncertainty regarding the bull market's length. For any participants, this means that Hayes's opinion ultimately remains a personal judgment and bet, and cannot replace independent research on project fundamentals, token mechanisms, and risk exposures; it should certainly not become a rallying cry for “HYPE must necessarily flip SOL.” In this journey of three times, what needs continuous tracking is whether the protocol can deliver actual revenue performance that matches its expected market cap, whether overall market liquidity is still expanding, and whether sentiment and capital preferences will continue to support the “flipping narrative.” Only with these critical variables gradually clarified, can the gap between HYPE and SOL become a solvable story rather than just another noisy tale.

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