Trading Moment: With less than 3 days left in May, can Bitcoin hold the defense line of 73,000?

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

Influenced by the rumors that "the US and Iran have reached an agreement on the memorandum of understanding," the three major US stock indices collectively rose and refreshed closing historical highs. As of the close, the S&P 500 index rose 0.58% to 7563.63 points, the Nasdaq rose 0.91% to 26917.47 points, and the Dow Jones rose 0.05% to 50668.97 points. Among them, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their sixth consecutive day of gains.

The weakness of macro data has further fueled expectations for interest rate cuts, as US April PCE inflation was lower than expected, and Q1 GDP growth was revised down to 1.6%. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.45%, and the 30-year yield fell below 5%. Deutsche Bank economist Matthew Luzzetti stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike response function has not yet been triggered, allowing more time for inflation to decline. Meanwhile, Global X ETFs' strategy leader Scott Helfstein pointed out that market interest rate expectations have undergone a 180-degree turn, allowing investors to refocus on fundamentals.

The Asia-Pacific market is equally optimistic, with the Japanese Nikkei 225 index soaring 2.7% to set another historical high. Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, stated that the authorities are ready to take bold action against speculation in the foreign exchange market at any time.

The Korean KOSPI index also surged over 3% to a historical high. The Bank of Korea decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol warned that bonuses issued by companies like Samsung could lead to increased demand, potentially creating a need for interest rate hikes at the appropriate time.

AI and Stock Market

Wall Street's tech feast continues, but the internal structure is experiencing significant differentiation. A global frenzy for single-stock leveraged ETFs has swept in, with assets doubling to over 60 billion dollars in just a month and a half. Funds are flowing from traditional US mega-cap tech stocks into the global AI and memory chip sectors. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the performance differentiation between large-cap tech stocks and non-profitable tech stocks has reached a five-year record.

The world's largest single-stock leveraged ETF has now changed ownership to a product that provides more than double exposure to SK Hynix. Meanwhile, the newly listed single-stock ETFs of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics raised over 2 billion dollars in just two days. Benefiting from the positive news regarding the delivery of the first batch of 12-layer HBM4E samples, Samsung Electronics' stock price soared over 5%, SK Hynix followed suit, and SoftBank surged over 6% under expectations of action from OpenAI.

AI concept stocks stood out in the market, with the world's largest cloud-native data warehouse platform Snowflake's stock price soaring 36.48% after the company announced a 6 billion dollar agreement with Amazon and released impressive financial reports for its AI data cloud business. Dell Technologies surged nearly 40% after hours, reporting a 757% year-on-year increase in revenue from AI servers, and predicting that revenues for this fiscal year will reach 60 billion dollars. In addition, Microsoft also rose over 3% amid rumors of a new coding large model being released next week, while Oracle, Figma, and other tech stocks saw significant gains.

At the same time, IBM announced plans to invest 10 billion dollars in quantum computing over the next five years, aiming to build the world's first large-scale quantum computer capable of stably executing complex computing tasks by 2029. Drone concept stocks also skyrocketed, with Red Cat Holdings jumping 32.61%, Unusual Machines soaring 57.2%, and AeroVironment rising 18.26%, due to reports that the Trump administration plans to provide funding support for domestic drone companies.

Regarding this frenzy, Goldman Sachs trader Chris Lucas warned that this concentrated leveraged exposure poses a fatal risk of “chaotic liquidation.” Goldman Sachs strategy team members Jacqueline Du and Peter Sheren clearly stated that the AI investment narrative is shifting from infrastructure to application layers, with humanoid robots as the next core monetization frontier. Benefiting from a 21% valuation discount of Asia-Pacific robotics stocks compared to US counterparts, funds are rapidly rotating into the Asia-Pacific ecosystem, but the large-scale commercial landing of this early-cycle opportunity will still require patient waiting until 2027 to 2029.

Bitcoin Market

With only three days left in May, Bitcoin may end this month with a bearish candle. The opening price for Bitcoin in May was 76,344 dollars, and the current price is constrained by the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA 30). To end with a bullish candle, Bitcoin needs to rise at least 3.5% in the remaining three days.

As 2026 approaches its midpoint, Bitcoin's performance appears particularly bleak, with a year-to-date return of only -16.5%. In contrast, the S&P 500 index has a return of 10.49%, and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) recorded an annual return of over 100%. Yesterday, Bitcoin's daily price briefly fell below the 100-day moving average (73,000 dollars), and it is currently trying to stabilize near the 100-day moving average.

Market sentiment has also been further impacted by on-chain data. The spot Bitcoin ETF has seen capital outflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling 2.843 billion dollars, with an average daily outflow of 320 million dollars. Strategy transferred 411.48 Bitcoins (worth over 30 million dollars) to Coinbase Prime, and the probability of anticipating Bitcoin sales on Polymarket has surged to 84%. In the upcoming 6 billion dollar monthly options expiration today, the maximum pain point for Bitcoin is at 75,000 dollars, but there has also been a large amount of funding for call options at 82,000 dollars.

Meanwhile, the US Treasury plans to drain approximately 150 billion dollars in liquidity from the financial system through operations such as short-term Treasury bills and coupon settlements from May 28 to June 5. Mott Capital founder Michael Kramer pointed out that Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to changes in liquidity, and the reduction in liquidity may further exacerbate the selling pressure on Bitcoin.

Bearish Viewpoints

Core Logic: Weak institutional demand and the exhaustion of on-chain liquidity are breaking the market's reservoir, and macro-geopolitical risks further amplify Bitcoin's vulnerability as a risk asset.

CryptoQuant: Due to a severe lack of new buyers, the accumulation of whales and institutions has stagnated. The record supply of 15.8 million long-term holders is not a bullish signal but instead exposes the reality that short-term demand is too weak and liquidity is fragile.
FxPro analysts: Bitcoin has fallen below the 50-day moving average, and the 200-day moving average is tilted downward, indicating that the long-term bull market has not yet arrived.
Swissblock: Under the double blow of selling pressure and the retreat of ETF buying, Bitcoin has slipped into the "high-risk zone."
Michaël van de Poppe: If the support levels of 72,000 to 74,000 dollars are lost, Bitcoin will collapse to new lows.
EliZ: 72,000 dollars is the key for a bullish trend change on the daily chart; if it falls below this level, prices will reach new lows.
Kaz: Anticipates that after one final upward temptation, prices will begin the ultimate downward wave towards below 60,000 dollars.

Bullish Viewpoints

Core Logic: Retail investors are actively bottom fishing at key support levels, and technical overselling combined with potential macro positives may ignite a strong rebound engine at any moment.

Hyblock analysts: The proportion of retail long accounts has risen to over 64%. Historical data shows that under such circumstances, going long has an 88% probability of gaining positive returns within seven days.
Ali Charts: Bitcoin has touched the significant structural support area of 71,300 to 73,000 dollars. If the bulls successfully defend this level, prices may return to 77,000 or even 79,500 dollars.
Astronomer: Maintains a bullish bias, stating that 72,700 to 73,000 dollars is an excellent response area for going long, expecting a rebound to the 75,000 or even 79,000 dollars range highs.
LP: Bottom liquidity has been swept away, and the market will follow liquidity upwards, likely hunting large short clusters around 80,000 dollars.

Ethereum Market

Ethereum's performance appears even weaker, with prices briefly falling below the 2,000 dollar mark, down over 30% since the beginning of the year. The spot ETF has seen net outflows for 13 consecutive days, with cumulative losses reaching 695 million dollars. Additionally, the options market has seen abnormally large put buying (contract flow at 1,800 and 1,900 dollars reached five times the normal level), and 10x Research warns that cheap does not equal a buying opportunity.

In this liquidity crisis, some choose to liquidate Ethereum while others choose to continue HODLing. Bankless founder David Hoffman stated he has liquidated his ETH, believing that the narrative of "ETH as currency" has ended and it is difficult to regain market revaluation. Hash Global's founder also announced liquidation, stating that although it can alleviate regulatory issues, it cannot provide ETH with a similar monetary premium as Bitcoin.

As pessimistic sentiment spreads, numerous KOLs have been posting in support of Ethereum. Among them, Bit Digital spent 20 million dollars to increase its holding of ETH at an average price of 2,334 dollars. Despite currently facing a floating loss of about 3 million dollars, CEO Sam Tabar still expresses optimism about Ethereum's long-term value. He believes the core of ETH lies in its position as the world's leading programmable settlement layer rather than its monetary attribute, with institutional demand being the real catalyst.

Additionally, analysts from Standard Chartered reiterated their optimistic outlook for ETH, predicting that the price will reach 4,000 dollars by the end of the year and possibly 40,000 dollars by 2030. They noted that the current price severely undervalues Ethereum's on-chain transaction volume and the rapid growth potential of the DeFi ecosystem, especially since stablecoins now occupy 33% of its trading volume, indicating significant appreciation potential in the future.

Key Data (As of May 29, 1:00 PM HKT)

(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: -229 million dollars, ongoing net outflow for 9 days
Ethereum ETF: -121 million dollars, ongoing net outflow for 13 days
Fear and Greed Index: 23 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XLM, XRP, BTC, ETH, PRL
Sector rise and fall: The cryptocurrency market is fluctuating downwards, with only the DeFi sector remaining relatively strong

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 69,619 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 192 million dollars, including 40.67 million dollars for BTC, 32.28 million dollars for ETH, and 6.44 million dollars for ZEC.

Today's Outlook

On May 29, approximately 6.25 billion dollars in Bitcoin options will expire
CME plans to launch AVAX and Sui futures contracts on May 4 and will support 24/7 trading starting May 29
Tapp Exchange announced its closure, with the frontend going offline on May 31
Optimism will stop supporting op-geth and op-program on May 31
Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens on May 30, worth about 4.6 million dollars
Gunz (GUN) will unlock approximately 354 million tokens on May 31, worth about 4.2 million dollars

Today's top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies: Stellar up 19.8%, Humanity up 13.5%, DeXe up 12.6%, Algorand up 12.3%, Hedera up 11.5%.

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