At the end of May 2026, several seemingly unrelated pieces of news suddenly aligned on the same timeline: on one side, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) CEO Jeffrey Sprecher publicly admitted at the Bernstein conference that he had met with the Hyperliquid team multiple times to "learn from them," seriously studying their 24-hour, 7-day uninterrupted derivative model that brings assets like SpaceX onto the blockchain; on the other side, BIT Weekly reported that the pre-IPO valuation of SpaceX in the crypto market was about $1.75 trillion—this was a price continuously "graphed" on-chain by perpetual contracts from platforms like Hyperliquid, not a range from investment bank roadshow PowerPoint presentations. Just as this on-chain valuation curve was being used as a “dark market anchor” before the traditional IPO on June 11, the SPACEX market on Ventuals crashed due to an oracle-dependent off-chain price error, prompting the platform to issue an announcement explaining the cause and promising compensation within 48 hours, thereby illustrating for the first time how on-chain price discovery can both outpace brokers and exchanges and potentially backfire in infrastructure failures. Almost simultaneously, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clearly stated that the Trump administration would not launch a CBDC, and the House version of the “21st Century Housing Act” included a temporary ban on the Fed issuing CBDCs, pushing the timeline for the “digital dollar” to after 2030; the focus of policy discussion shifted to regulation and business flow back rather than replacement of official currency. Under the combination of “ICE learning from on-chain, SpaceX being priced on-chain, and CBDC being officially rejected,” BTC and ETH, the two major collateral and benchmark assets, bore a risk premium transitioning from regulatory threat to regulatory recognition and from off-chain valuation to the on-chain pricing power struggle, leading to a forced rearrangement of capital's preferences and flows toward on-chain derivatives.

ICE Eyes Hyperliquid's 24-Hour Trading

When a traditional trading giant like ICE, which operates multiple futures, options, and spot markets, begins to repeatedly meet a blockchain derivatives platform, the protagonist of the story is no longer just the startup team but the global pricing system itself. Jeffrey Sprecher’s rare mention of Hyperliquid at the Bernstein conference emphasized two points: first, the efficiency of 24-hour, 7-day matching, and second, the attempt at perpetual contracts on innovative pre-IPO assets like SpaceX. His description of “multiple meetings with Hyperliquid's team to discuss business overlaps and potential collaborations” indicates that ICE's interest has moved beyond mere curiosity toward thorough systematic research: what would happen if this around-the-clock crypto derivatives model were integrated into their traditional trading system that primarily operates during weekdays and limited time slots?

For the crypto market, ICE’s research into on-chain platforms is crucial because it represents a path for institutional funds. One end consists of currently operating on-exchange derivatives based on trading days and daytime slots, while the other end is platforms like Hyperliquid, which can continuously price contracts around BTC, ETH, and SpaceX pre-IPO assets in a 24-hour trading environment. If even the mildest interoperability occurs in the future—such as ICE referencing Hyperliquid's price curve to design a new index or introducing tools tied to on-chain trading within a compliance framework—it would effectively open a regulated interface for traditional institutions, allowing them to indirectly tap into the liquidity and informational richness of crypto derivatives. Under this structure, BTC and ETH futures and perpetual contracts would evolve from being merely “risk hedging tools within the crypto circle” to becoming a central pricing mechanism across markets: when traditional markets close, on-chain trading would continue to reprice based on macro events and tech stock expectations; once trading resumes, markets like ICE would be forced to align with the already established 24/7 price trajectory, with funds continuously flowing between the two systems through arbitrage and hedging, thereby elevating BTC and ETH's pricing positions within the global derivatives framework to a new level.

SpaceX On-Chain Price Rise and Risk Appetite

When platforms like Hyperliquid listed “SPACEX Perpetual” on their trading pages, they had already provided an on-chain valuation from a single source—about $1.75 trillion—and this was continuously amplified into an emotional narrative within the 24/7 market: this is not a DCF report generated by a traditional investment bank, but a “story premium” derived from leveraging BTC and ETH as collateral with high leverage. BIT Official referenced this valuation in their weekly report while reminding investors to assess calmly: is this advance pricing based on rational discounting of future profit and cash flow, or is it betting on the continuation of the dual high environment of “growth + liquidity”? This warning itself indicates that the on-chain pricing of SpaceX bears more optimism about future easing, tech premiums, and IPO exuberance, rather than traditional fundamental consensus.

Because of this, the on-chain price curve of SpaceX quickly became a thermometer of risk appetite. Sprecher anticipated that SpaceX would debut in the traditional market on June 11, 2026, a date the market views as a test of the “on-chain markup” against the pricing discrepancies in the IPO: if, by that time, the IPO valuation is significantly lower than the current on-chain level, it would mean that leveraged funds in the BTC and ETH system overvalued risk assets during the entire prior period; conversely, it would strengthen the narrative of “on-chain prophets” and elevate the influence of crypto derivatives in the global pricing chain. In reality, the Ventuals SPACEX market had already experienced a flash crash due to errors in the off-chain data provided by the oracle, and the platform subsequently promised compensation within 48 hours; this incident exposed another layer: when the underlying asset is as valuation-sensitive as SpaceX, relying solely on off-chain quotes as the sole anchor is a systemic misdirection for leveraged funds.

In this structure, oracles and off-chain data sources are inherently “single points of failure” for high-leverage derivatives: once the price source briefly distorts, the automatic liquidation engine does not distinguish between “technical errors” and “real crashes,” but mechanically executes, instantaneously turning previously very low-probability tail risk into margin shortfall. The decentralized derivatives market has previously witnessed similar oracle errors and extreme price jumps; this time, it was the SPACEX curve under close market scrutiny, amplifying regulatory and institutional concerns regarding the reliability of the tech stack, and directly suppressing short-term leverage appetite. After reassessing such events, risk teams often lower the maximum allowable leverage multiple for the entire market and raise the margin call thresholds, leading to a narrowing of premium structures for futures and perpetual contracts of mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, reducing liquidation density, and pulling capital from aggressive long-term expectation trading back to shorter duration and lower leverage structures, until the market reestablishes sufficient trust in the robustness of oracles and data sources.

CBDC Rejection and Token Bets Under Temporary Ban

Following the oracle incident, Washington sent not a technical solution to the market but a longer-term policy signal. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly stated that the current Trump administration has “removed the option of issuing a central bank digital currency from the table,” effectively confirming for the market: at least during this term, there would be no digital dollar directly backed by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, the “21st Century Housing Act,” which had previously passed the House, formalized a temporary ban on the Fed issuing such products, extending the deadline to December 2030—although the bill still hangs in the Senate, and its final fate is uncertain, the expectation that “official digital dollars will be discussed again after 2030” has already formed a mental anchor for traders.

On one side is the rejected CBDC, and on the other side is the increasingly realistic discussion framework of “regulation and compliance”; U.S. policy focus has shifted from “creating a digital dollar” to “how to regulate privately issued dollar-denominated tokens and related businesses.” On a macro level, this equates to locking the main channel of the global dollar chain into marketized products and non-sovereign assets like BTC and ETH for the next few years, rather than allowing a central bank version to directly squeeze them out. The result is a subtle change in the structure of betting capital: dollar tokens, which originally worried about being devoured by the official digital dollar in the future, began to enjoy an “extended window period,” continuing to serve as main collateral and settlement tools in carry trade, cross-exchange arbitrage, and futures-spot price difference trading; whereas the role of BTC and ETH resembled a directional bet on this policy trajectory—pressing the pause button on CBDCs enhanced their narrative as benchmark assets “decoupled from sovereign credit,” making long positions in BTC, ETH, long returns from dollar-denominated tokens, and shorting overvalued traditional financial assets expressions on the same trading thought process.

SpaceX and CBDC Test BTC On-Chain Pricing

Looking at these clues together, the crypto market is pulling the “technology stock valuation rights” and “dollar asset pricing rights” onto the chain: on one side, platforms like Hyperliquid offer a 24/7 pricing curve for SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual contracts, and BIT Official quotes this on-chain valuation at about $1.75 trillion; on the other side, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explicitly removes CBDCs “from the table,” and the House-passed bill banning the Fed from issuing CBDCs until the end of 2030, if it ultimately becomes reality, would institutionally acknowledge that, in the short term, the dollar will not be anchored by central bank digital liabilities but by regulatory framework-constrained dollar-denominated tokens and offshore dollar channels. In this structure, ICE's CEO publicly praises Hyperliquid's 24-hour trading and innovative assets means that Wall Street does not aim to eliminate this on-chain pricing curve but rather prepares to incorporate it into its toolbox; however, Ventuals' SPACEX flash crash caused by off-chain data errors, followed by the platform's 48-hour compensation commitment, reminds everyone that there is still a technical and governance gap before this on-chain curve can be considered a “baseline.” For BTC and ETH, this directly reflects in the trading structure—serving as the main collateral and benchmark assets in the global arena, their futures and perpetual contracts will increasingly be used to express the relative trading of “on-chain valuation vs. Wall Street valuation” and “dollar on-chain anchor vs. dollar sovereign anchor”: on one side are basis trades and volatility hedges around the traditional IPO pricing of SpaceX on June 11, 2026, versus the on-chain estimated value; on the other side are considerations around whether the potential cooperation between ICE and Hyperliquid will materialize, whether traditional tech asset contracts will be adopted by mainstream funds, and whether the U.S. CBDC legislative path will lock the “dollar system without CBDC” into position beyond 2030, thereby determining whether BTC and ETH will continue to serve as directional chips against sovereign digital currencies or be further internalized as pledge assets and risk premium carriers within this new derivatives system.

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