The current market is moving along thewedge pattern from the upper track to the lower track, essentially a range washout under liquidity games. This type of oscillating trend will continue until an effective breakthrough of the range occurs. The daily line closed with three consecutive bearish candles, and yesterday it formed along lower shadow, combined with the price retracing to the critical level of 61.8, indicates that there is still buying support below, making a short-term rebound a normal trend.

Previously, it was advised that it was not suitable to chase short positions today. After three consecutive bearish candles, the market is inherently prone to oscillation or slight rebounds, and with key support in place, it is highly likely that today will mainly show oscillation and weak rebound, but the overall weak trend has not changed. The short-term first resistance level is at 74200, if the price reaches this level and shows fatigue, a short position could be taken; the core resistance is concentrated in the range of 75000-75500, and once a rebound reaches this area, short positions can be established in line with the trend.

As we approach the end of the month, the profit-taking by some short sellers may lead to a phase of rebound, which is also a typical rhythm of oscillating downward trends: after the rebound, it will still retest the lows. Currently, the risk-reward ratio for long positions is low and the risk is high, so participation in short-term long positions is not recommended. It is highly likely that the market will test the core support at 72000, where there will be repeated tugging; only breaking below or regaining this level can open a new direction.

From a smaller time frame, the previous key support has been breached, and currently, it is in a bottom oscillation, or it may form a wedge rebound structure before moving downward again. At this stage, there are no signals indicating a reversal to strength; continuation of decline after a weak rebound remains the mainstream trend.

Summary: The market is overall in a downward adjustment phase, and in the short term, it may transition through oscillation and slight rebounds, ultimately testing the important support at 72000. If it breaks below, the market will accelerate downward; if it maintains support, it will continue to oscillate within the range. In terms of operations, 74200 is a short-term observation point; if weakness is encountered, a short position can be taken; if there’s a rebound to the strong resistance area of 75000-75500, short positions can be established directly.

Disclaimer: The above is only a personal perspective and thought sharing and does not constitute any trading advice. Market conditions change rapidly, investment carries risks, and entering the market requires caution; please make your own decisions and bear the consequences of gains and losses.

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