In April, the CPI data and PPI data in the United States were both higher than previous values and expectations, but the market had a better understanding of the PCE data for April. The annual rate data released today, although also higher than previous values, was within the expected range; however, compared to the increases in CPI and PPI, the increase in the PCE data was not significant.

Even the monthly rate data was lower than the previous value; both the core PCE monthly rate and the PCE monthly rate were below the previous value. This is mainly because the weights of PCE are different from those of CPI, with shocks like energy, gasoline, and rent being more easily amplified in CPI.

CPI represents the prices paid by urban consumers, while PCE accounts for the entire personal consumption expenditure, with weights adjusted based on changes in consumption behavior.

Simply put, when oil prices rise, CPI directly shows "gasoline rose a lot," while PCE considers whether there has been any change in the actual consumption structure of consumers, such as driving less, consuming less, or switching to cheaper substitutes. Therefore, the same price shock does not necessarily have the same weight in PCE.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve still places the most importance on the core PCE data, which currently seems acceptable, only increasing by 0.1% compared to March, so the market should temporarily breathe a sigh of relief.

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