What to know : The White House’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs has begun reviewing a proposed CFTC rule on prediction markets, a key step in the federal regulatory process. The move signals the CFTC is advancing toward a broader federal framework for event contracts, including those tied to elections, gaming and sports, after months of legal and political disputes. The review comes shortly after President Donald Trump publicly endorsed the CFTC’s exclusive authority over prediction markets, even as several states argue that some event contracts amount to online sports betting.
The White House’s regulatory review office is examining a proposed Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rule on prediction markets, according to a federal filing that could shape how platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket operate across the U.S.
A RegInfo.gov entry shows that the proposal was received by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on May 26 under Executive Order 12866, triggering a review of what the CFTC describes as a proposed rule on “Prediction Markets.” The filing does not include the text of the proposed rule.
The move marks one of the clearest signs yet that the CFTC is preparing a broader federal framework for event contracts, following months of legal and political battles over sports and election markets.
Illinois, New Jersey and other states have argued that sports-linked event contracts effectively function as online betting markets. Kalshi and the CFTC have countered that designated contract markets regulated under federal commodities law fall under the agency’s exclusive authority.
The executive order governs how major federal regulations are vetted before publication, requiring agencies to submit significant rules for economic and policy analysis. OIRA, a division within the Office of Management and Budget, oversees the process.
The timing comes days after President Donald Trump publicly backed the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets, as CoinDesk previously reported, calling it “critically important” that the agency retain “exclusive authority” over the sector in a Truth Social post.
The proposal follows a March advance notice of proposed rulemaking in which the CFTC sought public comment on which prediction market contracts may be prohibited as “contrary to the public interest,” including contracts tied to elections, gaming, and sports.
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