On May 29, 2026, exchanges such as Deribit will face the concentrated expiration and settlement of options with a notional value of approximately 7.5 billion USD for BTC and ETH, with BTC around 6.21 billion USD and ETH around 1.29 billion USD, marking one of the largest monthly expiration windows in recent times. The current options position structure is not overwhelmingly bullish: the overall put/call ratio for BTC options is about 0.88, and for ETH it is about 0.81, which is nominally neutral but slightly bullish. However, the distribution of strike prices still leaves room for shorts to operate at specific price levels; in contrast, funds have significantly increased high-leverage BTC long positions just a day before expiration, actively betting that prices will remain high or continue to rise around the settlement period. The “max pain” price for options positions roughly falls around 75,000 USD, meaning that the tug-of-war between bulls and bears around this level will directly impact the profit and loss outcomes of most open contracts. Historically, similar large options expirations and futures rollovers have often resulted in more severe price volatility for Bitcoin, and any directional breakthrough at the current price range could significantly amplify the cascading reaction of leveraged positions, leading to a marked increase in short-term volatility risk.
Garret Jin bets 1268 coins on 5x long
According to AiCoin data, on May 28, 2026, trader Garret Jin continued to add to his BTC 5x leverage long position against the trend, expanding his position to approximately 1,268.33 BTC, which corresponds to a notional value of about 92.38 million USD, with an overall opening price of around 76,117 USD. Given that the current price is below the cost of position entry, this long position is experiencing a floating loss of about 4.098 million USD. However, he chose to increase the overall position instead of cutting losses, resulting in significant one-direction, single-asset risk exposure, which is amplified significantly just a day before the concentrated options expiration.
In contrast, the ZEC short position in Garret Jin's account recorded a floating profit of about 5.82 million USD, allowing his account to remain profitable overall. This mismatched combination of long and short effectively means that the profits from the ZEC short position are subsidizing the BTC leveraged long position, extending the survival time of the long position while withstanding downward fluctuations in BTC. Considering the upcoming large options expiration window on May 29, his actions of increasing the BTC long position in a floating loss state and relying on the cross-asset short position to hedge account risks essentially use realized or unrealized profits as “insurance” to bet that Bitcoin will maintain high levels or even return above the 70,000 USD mark around the settlement period. This combination structure clearly conveys a signal of aggressive bullish risk preference for Bitcoin’s future market.
Matrixport whale uses 20x long position
Unlike individual traders increasing leverage, a whale identified on-chain as being associated with Matrixport (now BIT) initiated a new account on May 28. According to AiCoin data, this whale first injected about 5 million USD in USDC as margin into a newly created account and then opened a long position of about 500 BTC with 20x leverage, with a notional value of approximately 36.5 million USD. A 20x leverage means that just a few percentage points of sharp price movement right before expiration may significantly enlarge the floating profit and loss range of this position, corresponding to a narrower safety margin and higher liquidation pressure.
Moreover, it is noteworthy that this is not an isolated “short-term bet.” The same whale continues to hold about 120,000 ETH long positions in other accounts, with a current position value of approximately 237 million USD, facing a floating loss of about 33.86 million USD, yet has not opted to significantly reduce the position, but rather has added a high-leverage long exposure in BTC. This combination indicates that despite significant retracement in the ETH long position, the whale chooses to continue betting on the overall upward movement of the cryptocurrency assets, viewing Bitcoin as the main focus within the options expiration window. Under the market structure of BTC's max pain price being around 75,000 USD, these institutional whales are simultaneously facing floating losses in ETH while opening high-leverage new long positions in BTC. This effectively amplifies individual risk preferences into a variable that the entire market needs to digest together, making sentiment more inclined towards aggressive bulls before and after the settlement, while also increasing the potential risk of severe price volatility and passive liquidation of leverage.
The maximum pain price is locked at 75,000 USD
The so-called “max pain price” refers to the price range at which, on a given expiration date, the total loss of all options holders is maximized, and the total profit of the sellers is maximized. The closer the price comes to this point, the more calls and puts end up out of the money or in slight profit, resulting in minimal hedging pressure for sellers and maximum net profit. According to various media citing Deribit data, this expiration features BTC options with a notional value of about 6.21 billion USD and ETH about 1.29 billion USD. At this scale, the current max pain price for BTC is locked in at around 75,000 USD, while ETH is near about 2,200 USD, becoming an explicit anchor point in market dynamics.
Structurally, the put/call ratio for BTC options at this expiration is about 0.88, and for ETH about 0.81, slightly skewed towards bullish but far from being an extreme one-sided bullish scenario. This means that near the 75,000 USD and 2,200 USD levels, a significant scale of both bullish and bearish positions hopes the price will converge towards the “middle ground.” For the aforementioned funds that are heavily leveraged to go long on BTC above 76,000 USD, if the price is pushed back or even nailed at the 75,000 USD line, on one hand, the option sellers approach their maximum profit zone; on the other hand, the floating profit space for leveraged longs is greatly compressed, facing pressure to cut back; conversely, if the spot price can stabilize or break above the max pain price, then the bullish structure and leveraged longs will reinforce each other, forcing option sellers to face higher cost offsets or hedging at higher price ranges, making 75,000 USD a critical price point for the collision of long and short interests in both spot and derivatives around the option expiration.
The cost of increasing positions with floating losses and risk management games
According to AiCoin data, Garret Jin increased his 5x leverage BTC long position to approximately 1,268.33 BTC on May 28, with a notional value of about 92.38 million USD, an average opening price of approximately 76,117 USD, realizing a floating loss of about 4.098 million USD, yet his account obtained approximately 5.82 million USD floating profit from the ZEC short, maintaining an overall profitable combination. From the perspective of risk-return ratio, he effectively uses realized hedged profits to “subsidize” a directional long position that is currently in floating losses. With the 5x leverage leaving a relatively ample safety cushion for price pullbacks and volatility, as long as extreme downturns or liquidity issues are not triggered, he has more room to withstand short-term pullbacks and to aim for rebounds of several thousand dollars around the options expiration window.
In contrast, the Matrixport-associated whale's configuration is significantly more aggressive: on the same day, they injected approximately 5 million USD in USDC margin into a new account, leveraging about 500 BTC in a 20x long position, with a notional value of approximately 36.5 million USD, while also holding about 120,000 ETH long positions valued at about 237 million USD and facing a floating loss of about 33.86 million USD. Near the max pain price of 75,000 USD for BTC, if the high-leverage long positions encounter amplified volatility due to the concentrated expiration of options and potential futures rollovers, even a single-digit percentage of downward movement could quickly reach the margin call or liquidation threshold, creating additional pressure on the already significantly losing ETH longs. From the perspective of institutions and high-net-worth traders, the implicit assumption of such operations is that short-term volatility will trend favorably, or at least will not produce a one-sided market that far exceeds the account's tolerable range; otherwise, if Garret Jin and the Matrixport whale continue to hold or even increase their positions instead of reducing exposure, it will transform from a “high probability event bet” into a one-way gamble, where they must bear the costs of liquidation and passive deleveraging.
Observational focus after the end-of-month settlement window
According to AiCoin data, this round of approximately 7.5 billion USD in notional value for BTC and ETH options will concentrate on expiration on May 29, along with the high-leverage longs added by Garret Jin and the Matrixport-associated whale just a day before expiration, magnifying the current divergences and risk preferences within the range: the overall structure of options is slightly leaning towards bullish with most sellers hoping for prices to converge towards the max pain price near 75,000 USD for BTC and 2,200 USD for ETH, while aggressive bulls are betting that prices will maintain or even breach the current range. After the settlement, three points need to be observed first: whether the price settles near the max pain price or significantly above/below, determining whether option sellers or leveraged bulls are under pressure; secondly, whether the high-leverage longs, including the two accounts mentioned above, will passively reduce their positions, add margin, or hedge in the opposite direction, or choose to continue amplifying their exposure; thirdly, the total scale of related open options and whether the follow-up data of CME contract rollovers confirm that this window is just a temporary “hand-off” rather than a conclusion of a one-sided market, thus viewing this expiration as a structural signal, not as a result of the short-term direction of Bitcoin being locked in.
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