The talks between the United States and Iran are still quite convoluted, but from the price of WTI, it can be seen that the market now believes that the U.S. will definitely address the issue in the Strait of Hormuz. Not only WTI but even Brent is experiencing a substantial decline; currently, the price difference between Brent and WTI is less than $3.5. Oil prices represent market confidence, and lowering oil prices can help reduce global inflation issues.

Moreover, according to data from forecast websites, the market's probability of an economic recession occurring in the U.S. this year has significantly decreased. Investors have also begun to anticipate that the end of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran will ease U.S. inflation and pull the country out of recession fears. After all, from a practical standpoint, the U.S. has indeed become tougher after the ceasefire.

The current strategy remains to continue shorting WTI at high levels; there’s not much else to say. At this stage, we will first look at $85 and then see if it continues to fluctuate. I feel that resolving the Iranian issue all at once isn't easy, but if the Strait of Hormuz is addressed separately first, it should be much simpler. Solving the Hormuz issue would effectively resolve the U.S.’s biggest problem.

Iran, on the other hand, becomes less of a concern.

Looking back at Bitcoin data, the bearish sentiment towards $BTC among friends is continuing to rise. The performance of the U.S. stock market remains relatively strong. I estimate that Bitcoin will only catch a breath after the issues regarding Hormuz or Iran are resolved, but indeed data shows that BTC investors are not in a state of panic. Currently, the main participants in trading are short-term investors.

Of course, due to liquidity reasons, short-term investors are the main drivers of price fluctuations, but as long as the majority of users are not participating in trading, and there are no new negative factors from the U.S., the price of Bitcoin can still remain somewhat stable.

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