During this time, the doubts about Bitcoin from the overseas community not only stem from the sell-off by Mark Cuban that I mentioned in yesterday's article, but also from a series of actions by MicroStrategy, the most well-known institutional holder of Bitcoin.

Recently, many observant people have noticed that MicroStrategy has started selling its held Bitcoin.

At this moment filled with uncertainties in the crypto ecosystem, this action by MicroStrategy will undoubtedly provoke strong emotions within the community.

Some believe that MicroStrategy's move is quite normal because it is a publicly traded company that needs to consider performance, deal with financial issues, care for shareholder interests, and respond to Wall Street... thus requiring some cash.

The largest, most liquid asset it holds, which can be quickly converted into cash, is Bitcoin.

Therefore, selling part of its holdings for some cash on hand is also quite normal.

However, more people are worried that MicroStrategy is "in trouble" and that it may lead to a catastrophic collapse in Bitcoin prices.

I used AI to estimate how much the price of Bitcoin might plummet if all the Bitcoin held by MicroStrategy were liquidated at once. As of the time of writing, at $76,000, how low could it fall?

AI gave the following results:

In an optimistic scenario overlooked;

Maximum likelihood (40% probability), dropping to $64,000;

A relatively pessimistic scenario (30% probability), dropping to $60,000;

The worst case (10% probability), plummeting to $57,000.

In response, I would take a more extreme stance than AI and halve the prices it provided, yielding the following valuations:

Maximum likelihood (40% probability), dropping to $32,000;

A relatively pessimistic scenario (30% probability), dropping to $30,000;

The worst case (10% probability), plummeting to $28,000.

If my more extreme scenario occurs, how to handle it would depend on the judgment of investors.

If investors believe that following such a plunge, Bitcoin has lost its meaning and value, then this collapse would be a disaster for them.

If investors think that such a plunge is merely an episode in its journey forward, and that it still doesn't affect its bright future and prospects, then this collapse would be an incredibly rare opportunity for them.

In articles from last year and earlier this year, many readers often asked what price to set for regular investments in Bitcoin now.

My answer is: do not consider regular investments at the current price level.

However, if Bitcoin can drop below $35,000 again (such as in the extreme collapse scenario mentioned above), then it would be an incredible opportunity for me.

Because I still believe in Bitcoin's future and prospects.

Therefore, whether MicroStrategy goes bankrupt does not affect my judgment on Bitcoin's future; the only thing that may be affected (if liquidation leads to a price collapse) is my actions.

Thus, the overseas community's rumors about MicroStrategy seem to me to be noise that can be completely ignored.

In an article from two years ago, I was not very satisfied with the so-called bull market at that time.

Many people were excitedly obsessed with Bitcoin surpassing $100,000.

But in my view, its significance was quite limited.

Without the prosperity of the entire crypto ecosystem, Bitcoin's lone standout not only has very limited meaning but is also quite unstable. Only when the entire crypto ecosystem thrives can Bitcoin's value have stronger support and potential for growth.

Over the years, the crypto ecosystem has indeed faced various shocks and disruptions, leading some people to even start questioning Bitcoin now.

This is very normal.

Because the vast majority of people are speculators who cannot see the future and do not think critically about it.

But I firmly believe:

The current slump is merely a cyclical low for the ecosystem. Bright days will surely come, and the future remains brilliant; we simply need a bit more patience and a little more waiting.

Time will not betray those who are earnest.

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