In the past two days, the "panic" in the market has actually been very obvious.
The Fear and Greed Index has dropped directly to 25, entering "extreme fear."
In groups, on Twitter, and in communities, everywhere there are questions:
- Is the bull market over?
- Will BTC drop below 70,000?
- Are altcoins completely out of the game?
- Should I liquidate my holdings now?
But to be honest, I am not as panicked as I was before.
Because the truly dangerous times are often not when everyone is scared.
But when everyone thinks "it can still double."
The market suddenly changed its face
What was the state a few months ago?
AI was soaring, memes were flying, and even a small coin could double. Many people even began to feel that making money had become very easy.
But what the market likes to do the most is to suddenly splash a bucket of cold water when everyone is at their most inflated.
So recently:
- ETF outflows continued
- BTC high price corrections
- Altcoins started to be halved
- High leverage liquidations
- Sentiment rapidly turned cold
The Fear Index has also dropped to 25.
Many people have begun to doubt the bull market again.
Funds are returning to BTC
There has been a particularly obvious change recently:
Funds are starting to embrace BTC again.
During the craziest times in the market a while ago, many people had already stopped paying attention to BTC.
Everyone thought BTC was rising too slowly.
What people were chasing were:
- AI
- Meme
- Altcoin hotspots
But now it's different.
BTC has instead become the most stable asset in the market.
ETH has started to weaken, small coins have increasingly poor liquidity, but BTC's market cap share has been rising.
This is actually typical of: "Capital returning to the main line in the mid-bull market."
What stage does it resemble now?
My own feeling: it now feels particularly like a "forced cooling."
To get rid of:
- High leverage washed out
- Sentiment cooled off
- Bubble squeezed out
- People chasing highs washed out
Then the market can choose its direction again.
The most torturous part of this stage is that: it won't crash immediately, but will keep oscillating.
Making it hard to buy or sell, constantly doubting whether the market has ended, until most people lose patience.
The truly dangerous times have actually not arrived yet
Many newcomers may feel: "The Fear Index is at 25, is it already very dangerous?"
But veteran players generally know: a true major top isn't typically in this kind of atmosphere.
But rather:
- Everyone is flaunting profits
- Groups are shouting about getting rich every day
- People think they can make money just by closing their eyes to buy
- Even those who have never interacted with the crypto space start rushing in
That's when it becomes dangerous.
And now, the market has clearly begun to feel fear.
To a certain extent, this is actually healthy.
Next, focus on three signals
I've been mainly keeping an eye on three things recently.
First: When will ETF funds flow back in?
The market is particularly sensitive to institutional funds now.
As long as there are consecutive net inflows into ETFs again, sentiment will recover quickly.
Second: Can BTC stabilize around 75k?
This position is now very critical.
As long as the big structure is intact, I personally still lean towards thinking this is a washout in the bull market rather than a complete turn to bear.
Third: When will ETH regain strength?
This point is actually very important.
In a real major market, ETH usually won't lag behind for a long time.
If ETH starts to outperform BTC again, market risk appetite may return.
Final words
I increasingly feel that:
The true end of this market cycle may not have come yet.
But the market will definitely find a way to wash most people out.
Because only in this way can the subsequent rise go further.
In a market like this, surviving first is more important than anything.
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Risk warning: This content is only a market observation sharing and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, please participate within your own risk tolerance.
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