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Bitcoin Gets Pinned Near $77K as $3.7B Options Expiry Locks in Max Pain Zone

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bitcoin.com
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1 hour ago
AI summarizes in 5 seconds.

  • Key Takeaways:

    • Bitcoin futures OI across all exchanges reaches $54.94B, with CME holding 16.97% at $9.33B.
    • Options calls lead puts 56.79% to 43.21% on Deribit, signaling modest bullish positioning on May 25.
    • Max pain for the May 29 Deribit expiry sits near $76K–$79K with spot at $77,343 in range.
  • On Monday, total bitcoin futures open interest (OI) across all tracked exchanges stood at 710,150 BTC, worth $54.94 billion, according to Coinglass data. CME ranked first by dollar value at $9.33 billion, representing 16.97% of the total market despite holding only 120,570 BTC in open contracts. Binance trailed close behind with $10.41 billion and 134,570 BTC, giving it the largest share by coin count at 18.94%.

    OKX, Bybit, Gate, and Hyperliquid rounded out the top six, with the full market showing a 24-hour OI change of negative 0.59%. Futures open interest in USD terms peaked in late October 2025 near $100 billion when bitcoin approached $126,000, then fell sharply as price corrected through late 2025 and into early 2026.

    Bitcoin futures data via Coinglass on Monday.

    Bitcoin futures data via Coinglass on May 25, 2026.

    Statistics show a significant trough in February 2026 before a measured recovery that brought OI back into the $55–$65 billion range alongside a spot price recovery toward $80,000. The current level sits roughly $30 billion below the cycle peak, even as price has reclaimed the mid-$70s range.

    On the options side, calls held a 56.79% edge over puts by open interest as of Monday morning, with 267,983.95 BTC in call OI against 203,904.95 BTC in put OI across all tracked venues. The 24-hour volume split was nearly even. Essentially, calls at 50.15% versus puts at 49.85%, suggesting short-term directional conviction is thin even as the longer-term book leans bullish.

    The most active open interest contract on Deribit was the May 29 $80,000 call, carrying 7,856 BTC. That strike sits roughly $2,657 above the current spot, making it out-of-the-money heading into Friday’s expiry. The December 2026 $120,000 call ranked second with 7,063.3 BTC, indicating some traders are betting on a significant price move before year-end.

    The December 2026 $60,000 put was the third-largest position at 6,496.2 BTC, reflecting serious hedging activity against a downside scenario. Max pain calculations across exchanges show notable alignment. Deribit’s max pain curve sits between $76,000 and $79,000 for the May 29 expiry, with $3.7 billion in notional value set to expire Thursday. Binance shows a similar near-term max pain in the $76,000–$78,000 band before climbing sharply toward $80,000 for the June 26 contract. OKX’s curve rises steadily through June 2026 before pulling back and then spiking near $80,000 for the March 2027 expiration, where notional value approaches $1.2 billion.

    The 24-hour volume rankings on Deribit showed the most active trading concentrated in near-term Bybit contracts. The Bybit BTC-26MAY26-$78,500-C- USDT led all pairs with 309.85 BTC in volume, followed by the $78,000 call at 306.26 BTC and the $77,500 call at 299.79 BTC. A $76,000 put on Bybit ranked fourth at 290.08 BTC, and Deribit’s June 26 $85,000 call placed fifth at 279.5 BTC. The clustering near current spot levels confirms traders are paying close attention to the $77,000–$79,000 range.

    CME‘s options structure tells a different story than the retail-dominated platforms. CryptoQuant data shows CME options OI stacked by expiration has contracted sharply from its November 2025 peak of roughly 70,000 BTC, with the near-term 1–2 month expiration bucket now dominating what remains. By position, puts have consistently outweighed calls in CME’s book throughout 2025 and into 2026. A pattern that reflects institutional traders using options primarily as downside protection rather than speculative leverage.

    Kucoin posted the most extreme OI-to- volume ratio at 6.6362, meaning its 24-hour volume represented more than six times its open interest, a sign of elevated short-term churn relative to held positions. BingX showed the sharpest 24-hour OI decline at negative 23.09%, while Bybit stood out with a 2.65% 24-hour OI increase, the largest gain among the top exchanges.

    With spot at $77,343 and max pain sitting right in that zone heading into the May 29 expiry, options writers have reason to hold steady. Whether that gravitational pull holds through Thursday, or whether a catalyst breaks the range and forces a scramble, is the question traders are pricing into every call and put on the tape.

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