After the article on May 13 titled "Slow Thinking in Investment: Observe, Understand, and Then Act" was published, there was a comment in the remarks section:

"After so many years of time and accumulation, I can finally settle this account clearly. New things I thought I understood have to be tested; but in the end, they are generally the same regardless of circumstances. The real choice is to do things within my capabilities and make friends with time. I believe this is the only correct answer... Whenever one truly understands, it is never too late. Rather than waiting until one has made enough money to realize these things."

This passage is quite touching.

However, I must correct one statement in it, which was also mentioned in another comment, that is "having earned enough."

I am still far from "having earned enough."

"After so many years of time and accumulation, I can finally settle this account clearly." This sentence not only reminds me of the journey I have taken in the crypto ecosystem over the years but also brings to mind my earlier years in the stock market.

The path I took in the stock market was full of twists and turns, making me take a long time to find my way out—ultimately realizing that technical analysis and short-term trading methods were not suitable for me, and leveraging, options, and various financial tools were disasters for me.

Since stepping out of that pit, I have basically not walked into similar traps again, and fortunately, I have not fallen into similar traps in the crypto ecosystem.

Perhaps this is an important reason that has allowed me to survive in the crypto ecosystem all these years without being thrown out by repeated crashes and "black swan" events.

There are some popular sayings in the investment field, such as:

"I have a very small principal now, so I must speculate";

"Once I have money, I won't speculate anymore";

"He is doing this now because he has money and a larger scale now."

But these sayings do not match my situation.

Initially in the stock market, I started speculating when my fund size was very small, starting with technical analysis, short-term trading, and leverage tools. Although there were occasional windfall profits, the long-term view was a loss. Ultimately, the result was that the already small starting capital dwindled even more.

It wasn't until later that I tried long-term investing that I began to earn back the tiny amount of capital bit by bit.

Later, by chance, I entered the crypto ecosystem, and it was because of the favored long-term investment in a relatively large position that I have survived until today.

Recently, I have been reading "Duanyongping Investment Q&A Record."

I found that some things I had read before now bring completely different insights; statements that slipped away in the past now linger for a long time when I read them again.

For example, "It is generally safer to invest after seeing a good business model (2013-04-23)."

This sentence seems to be my first encounter with it; I must have overlooked it the first time I read it.

But seeing it this time made me think of a lot and formed a relatively long chain of thought.

What we have been discussing here is all about investment. Since it is investment, it ultimately needs to talk about returns. To discuss returns, one must find the logic and factors that can generate returns.

If you cannot find or do not consider the logic and factors that can generate returns, then that kind of "investment" is more like paying for sentiment and emotional value.

Engaging in such "investment," unless one is a gambler, it is generally very difficult to be heavily invested. Without heavy investment, it is very hard to achieve significant returns.

Engaging in such "investment," even if there are occasionally large returns, the likelihood is that it is luck and difficult to maintain over the long term.

Therefore, from a serious investment perspective, before investing in an asset, one must still find/understand the logic and factors that can generate returns. For things where the logic and factors for generating returns cannot be found/understood, they can be appreciated, and observation can be maintained, but investing should still be approached with caution.

Duanyongping said that he does not invest in things that do not generate cash flow, so he particularly emphasizes business models, stressing that what ultimately needs to produce sustainable cash flow.

In the crypto ecosystem, I believe that in addition to assets with cash flow models, there are also some things with collectible attributes (like Bitcoin, CryptoPunk, etc.) that are extremely valuable, can appreciate over time, and can be long-term investments.

So in the crypto ecosystem, I feel that using another way to express it would cover a wider range and be more appropriate:

It is generally safer to invest after understanding the appreciation logic and model.

As for what "understanding" is and how to calculate "understanding," it can easily lead to controversy, so we can rephrase this with reverse logic:

If you cannot understand or are not quite sure if you understand before investing, then there is no need to rush to act.

From this perspective, reflecting on many past investment experiences as well as successful and failed cases, the thinking becomes much clearer, and the lessons learned can immediately emerge.

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