Some views on the upcoming trend of bitcoin:native:

The following article from CryptoQuant suggests that the current trend of Bitcoin may be repeating the bear market phase of March 2022,

Overall, I somewhat agree with this statement: The 200-day moving average is a threshold, this stage does indeed resemble 2022, but there are also differences!

1️⃣ Sell pressure near the 200-day moving average is quite real.

In bear markets or mid-term declining structures, the 200-day moving average is often not a place of "immediate breakout," but rather a location where prior trapped capital, short-term rebound profit-taking, and trend traders shorting/reducing positions coexist.

The relevant analysis from CryptoQuant also draws a comparison between the recent resistance near $82,400, followed by a drop to around $76,000, and a failed rebound at the 200-day moving average during the 2022 bear market;

This suggests that the market has already regarded this area as a "trend checkpoint."

2️⃣ ETF fund flows.

Unlike the last market, this time there are ETFs;

Data from Farside Investors shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of $648.6 million on May 18 and a net outflow of $331.1 million on May 19;

This indicates that institutional channels are no longer providing stable buying pressure in the short term.

This type of fund flow is very important for BTC because ETF applications and redemptions can affect spot buying and selling pressure; when the price hits key resistance, if ETF inflows do not keep up, the likelihood of a failed breakout will significantly increase.

3️⃣ Macroeconomic environment is not conducive to risk assets.

The first meeting gift after Walsh took office: The U.S.-Iran war remains unresolved, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve "raising interest rates" has risen to 80% this year!

Moreover, the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meetings on April 28–29 indicated that inflation remains above the 2% target, and nearly all committee members support maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, with most members believing that if inflation continues to exceed 2%, further tightening could become appropriate.

For BTC, high interest rates, strong dollar expectations, and rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields will all weaken the "liquidity-driven rebound."

After saying all this, it doesn't mean I'm bearish, what I want to convey is:

According to my trading discipline, now is not the time to heavily chase long positions; one needs to be extremely cautious. You can consider $82,500 as the dividing line for longs and shorts, and $75,000 as the risk switch. If it hasn't been touched, let's temporarily remain on the sidelines!

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