Federal Reserve April Meeting Minutes Content — — Risks of Rate Hikes Emerging

In the April meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%, and this outcome itself was not surprising. What really contains information is the discussion about the future policy path in the minutes.

The minutes clearly mentioned that most participants believe it may become appropriate to tighten policy further if inflation continues to stay above 2%.

To put it simply, the Federal Reserve is already considering the issue of rate hikes if inflation continues to rise; rate cuts are far from us now, and instead, rate hikes are closer, with the main reason for this situation being the Strait of Hormuz, which I have been discussing recently.

In more detail, many participants actually希望 to remove the wording in the post-meeting statement that suggested future rate cuts were more likely. Because in their view, it is no longer appropriate to maintain a loose stance now.

With inflation rising again, energy prices increasing, Middle Eastern conflicts driving up supply chain and input costs, and tariffs continuing to affect core commodity prices, continuing to imply a high likelihood of rate cuts in such an environment would lead the market to prematurely trade on loosening.

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