In a research note published this week, K33’s head of research, Vetle Lunde, argued that the conditions defining the 2026 bear market make an 80%-plus collapse (akin to those seen in 2018 and 2022) structurally unlikely. She added that the 2025 bull market was less aggressive than prior cycles, and a proportionally less severe bear market will follow as a consequence.

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The firm’s key evidence sits in derivatives data as bitcoin’s 30-day average funding rate has remained negative for 81 consecutive days, an unusually prolonged stretch of bearish positioning in perpetual swap markets. Lunde describes this as a “uniquely pessimistic” sentiment, which paradoxically stands to limit further downside by exhausting near-term selling pressure before a sustained decline can develop.

K33’s base case projects bitcoin consolidating within a range of $60,000 to $75,000, with slow grind dynamics rather than a sharp capitulation event. The “maximum drawdown” in this scenario sits at the February low of approximately $60,000, a roughly 52% decline from the all-time high of $126,272 reached on October 6, 2025.

The numbers may be severe by historical standards for equities, but quite modest for a bitcoin bear market cycle, as previous cycles have produced peak-to-trough losses exceeding 80%.

The key structural difference K33 points to is the role of institutional capital. With access to bitcoin now largely routed through regulated products, the extreme leverage feedback loops that drove prior capitulations are harder to sustain at scale. Long-term holders also appear to be approaching selling exhaustion, a metric that in previous cycles has preceded a medium-term price floor.

Moreover, in February, K33 flagged parallels to the late 2022 bear market bottom when bitcoin first approached the $60,000 level. The latest note extends that argument forward, suggesting that if February was the floor, the market is now in slow recovery territory rather than mid-decline.

For traders and long-term holders alike, the question now shifts from how low bitcoin can go to how long the consolidation lasts.

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