In the past three days, a well-known "smart money" address that had purchased 11,004 ETH at an average price of about $3.45 back in 2016, resulting in a current unrealized profit of approximately $30.38 million, has once again made significant moves on-chain: According to AiCoin data, this address has exhausted its on-chain USDC balance in a short period, continuously buying approximately 6,627.79 ETH, totaling about $14.27 million. Among these, a single purchase of about 1,344.18 ETH, worth approximately $2.83 million, is particularly noteworthy. The average cost of the newly added positions in this round is about $2,153.95, and the current unrealized loss of the new portion is approximately $165,000. However, in relation to the overall highly profitable position, this appears more like a proactive exploration of volatility. Almost simultaneously, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin released a technical blog post, systematically discussing how to advance formal verification using tools like Lean to mathematically "verify" the safety of software and protocols, and proposed the idea of leveraging AI-assisted formal verification to create a highly reliable "security core." In many media interpretations, this is seen as a long-term declaration of Ethereum's bet on the security route; on one side, on-chain funds are accumulating ETH during a high price level while enduring short-term retracements, and on the other side, the protocol layer is trying to reshape the narrative of security with formal verification and AI. The coincidence in timing makes this increase in smart money positions seem more like a gamble between short-term volatility and long-term security vision.

Old address makes a move again: From $3 to over two thousand dollars

For this old address, this round of "gambling" under the security narrative is not impulsive. According to AiCoin data, as early as 2016, when ETH was still a little over $3, they made a hefty bet, purchasing 11,004 ETH at an average price of about $3.45. The passage of time and multiple market cycles have pushed this stake to an unrealized gain of about $30.38 million, and has firmly placed this address on the "smart money" list—despite undergoing numerous rounds of volatility, this early position still remains a significant profitable moat today.

Recently, within just three days, this old address has once again significantly increased its holdings. According to on-chain records, they purchased approximately 6,627.79 ETH, totaling about $14.27 million, almost leveraging a "graduated increasing positions" approach during the same market correction. Among these, the latest single purchase of about 1,344.18 ETH corresponds to approximately $2.83 million, elevating the average cost of the entire newly added position to about $2,153.95. Based on current prices, this new position is temporarily in an unrealized loss situation of about $165,000, but due to the earlier very low cost, the overall position remains deeply profitable. More intriguingly, on-chain data shows that they have entirely exchanged their original USDC balance for ETH, once again concentrating their stakes and voice on this old chain.

Buying while in unrealized loss: What is smart money betting on

According to AiCoin data, the average cost of this new position has been raised to about $2,153.95, currently reflecting an unrealized loss of about $165,000. However, there are no apparent signs of unwinding on-chain; instead, the previously held USDC has been completely exchanged for ETH. This action of not cutting losses amid unrealized losses, but rather exhausting "ammunition" can only be done under the premise that their original cost was around $3.45 and the overall position still remains at several tens of millions of dollars in unrealized profit. It is equivalent to using the substantial buffer built over the past decade to gamble whether the current price range can be proven to be "cheap chips" in the future.

What truly makes it difficult to reach a conclusion is that we do not know whether this address is backed by an institution, a fund, or an individual. We can only infer possible assumptions from historical performances and current position structures: either they have a firm grasp on the long-term value of Ethereum and accept short-term retracements for greater long-term exposure; or they have a medium to long-term judgment about the current price range, believing that even if temporarily trapped, it remains within bearable volatility; or it is also possible that they view Ethereum as part of the future security infrastructure, attempting to expand their stakes as the technical narrative strengthens. Regardless of which path, this is merely a sample of a bet made by a major fund participant, rather than a widely replicable guide for the general public, let alone a definitive buy signal for anyone.

Vitalik's new article: Entrust security to mathematics

In sync with this large funding address's gamble on the price curve, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently provided another "betting method" on a technical level: entrusting security to mathematics. In his latest blog post, he systematically discussed the rise of formal verification in the Ethereum development circle and the broader computing field, emphasizing that when AI can generate massive code in an extremely short time, the probability of hidden errors also expands, making traditional reliance on testing and auditing insufficient to meet future security demands. Therefore, a mathematically proven "security core" is necessary to back the entire system.

In this article, Vitalik mentioned using formal proof tools such as Lean, attempting to mathematically provide a proof that "this program must satisfy certain properties" from protocol logic to key code paths, rather than merely relying on sample tests that don't result in errors. Many media interpretations stated that he sees AI-assisted formal verification as the "ultimate form" of software development, believing that future development processes may evolve to: AI is responsible for generating complex code, while humans and tools establish high-confidence security boundaries for the most critical parts using formal methods. Some reports extend this view, positing that Ethereum is likely to become an important component of such "security core" infrastructure, but this view is currently more interpretive anticipation, while Vitalik is undoubtedly trying to shift Ethereum's security narrative from human experience and good intentions to hard constraints that can be repeatedly verified by machines and mathematics.

Ethereum aims to be the global security core

In Vitalik's vision, AI can continuously write code, but what truly supports future critical infrastructure is that small set of “security cores” that have been rigorously scrutinized through formal verification. He specifically mentions using tools like Lean in his blog post to mathematically prove the correctness of protocols and software, emphasizing that this method does not belong solely to Ethereum itself but is aimed at a wider range of computing and application scenarios. Some media have interpreted this as indicating that Ethereum may play an important role in the future as "security core" infrastructure; however, this statement currently mainly stems from a single source, appearing more as a projection of a roadmap rather than a nailed-down reality.

To actualize this story in the on-chain world, Ethereum needs to establish a gap in the security narrative. However, the application of formal verification within the community is still in the promotion stage, and there is still a significant distance before it becomes the default practice for all projects. Public materials also do not systematically outline the limitations and costs of this route, which means that there are still a whole series of problems such as tool thresholds, development habits, and ecological collaboration that need to be addressed between concept and large-scale implementation. Whether Ethereum can move from "wanting to become the security core" to "being regarded as the security core by the whole world" still requires time and more verifiable results to answer.

Short-term stakes and long-term security: who will be proven correct

On the same timeline, one address spent approximately $14.27 million within three days, exhausting their on-chain USDC to buy approximately 6,627.79 ETH, thickening their stake built back in 2016 at an average price of about $3.45; while another person consistently emphasizes the use of formal verification tools like Lean and AI-assisted verification in their blog to lock down a "security core" path for Ethereum. On one side is a bet in a price cycle that has brought an unrealized gain of about $30.38 million, while on the other side is a gamble on security infrastructure that is still in the tool threshold and ecosystem adjustment period. Based on the currently available on-chain data and information, we can only confirm that this early address is indeed increasing its holdings and that the overall position remains significantly profitable. We cannot infer whether the next step will be unwinding, adding to positions, or hedging, nor can we glean the inevitable trajectory of ETH prices from this. What is truly worth closely monitoring is whether they will reduce their holdings at high prices or adjust positions again, along with the speed and scope of adoption of formal verification and AI security tools in Ethereum's ecosystem by mainstream projects. How these variables evolve will determine whose price bets and Vitalik's security gamble will be closer to the correct answer in the next cycle.

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