Gold's structural cycle still has BTC ahead of it.

Gold's 18% pullback from its $5,589 January peak came from three macro drivers: the Warsh nomination sparked hawkish repricing, Operation Epic Fury on February 28 sent oil above $100 and re-accelerated inflation, and the USD rebounded.

The PBOC's March 2026 purchase of 5 tonnes was its largest in over a year and brought reserves to 2,313 tonnes, or 9.6% of total reserve assets. Net central bank purchases totaled 244 tonnes globally in Q1 2026, above the prior quarter and the five-year average. 68% of central banks plan to increase gold holdings in 2026, up from 62% last year. The structural bid did not move with the price.

Gold and Global M2 have historically led BTC by 3-4 months. The current lag has stretched to 5-6 months. 2020 saw a similar dynamic when COVID delayed the handoff before the cycle re-asserted. The Iran shock may be playing a similar role this cycle.

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