What I said yesterday about the Wash era being hard to trade, many people misunderstood my meaning. I am not saying he will definitely be hawkish, nor am I saying he will definitely be dovish,

but because he will turn the Federal Reserve from a “predictable machine” into a “black box where the rules need to be guessed again.”

It’s like there used to be game rules, everyone could predict, but now there are no rules, it’s like blind men touching an elephant!

During the Powell era: the most valuable thing for the Federal Reserve is expectation management. Through forward guidance, dot plots, and the chair's speeches constantly “spoiling” the policy path, the market can price interest rates, liquidity in advance, and even defaults to the existence of a “Fed put.” People dared to overestimate valuations, dared to leverage, dared to hold risk assets long-term because “ultimately the Federal Reserve will come to save the market.”

Wash’s style is different: he explicitly wants to weaken forward guidance, reduce the influence of the dot plot, and even publicly states that he prefers “messy meetings.” No longer pursuing a clear consensus or preset path from each FOMC, but rather allowing members to debate genuinely, talk less, and commit less.

This means: the market can no longer simply trade by “listening to the Fed,” it must interpret inflation, employment, geopolitical data in real-time, and the speed and accuracy of responses must be greatly increased.

Because what BTC trades in the underlying market often are: dollar liquidity, real interest rates, risk appetite, and leverage balance. If there is a “rate cut + balance sheet reduction” in the future, trading will be much more difficult than in the past.

So in the short term, with increased uncertainty, bitcoin:native is more like a high beta risk asset (following liquidity expectations rather than purely an inflation hedge) where a decline is inevitable.

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