Bitcoin should hold up better than the rest of crypto over the next year.

Money exists in a hierarchy. Reserves and deposits sit at the top with loans and securities below them. When liquidity tightens a quality preference reasserts itself and capital climbs the ladder.

On the quantity side, our Liquidity Margin of Safety Index (LMOS) tracks the ratio of higher-quality money to lower-quality money and today it sits at levels last seen leading into the Global Financial Crisis.

Two price signals reinforce the setup. Our Central Bank Policy Breadth Index is rolling over from elevated levels. Our US Policy Leading Indicator has also rolled over, though it remains in neutral territory, and that rollover historically telegraphs a rising real-yield environment 12 to 18 months out.

The flows inside crypto are not uniform. When the pyramid compresses capital moves first out of alts into Bitcoin, and then out of Bitcoin into cash and Treasuries.

LMOS leads Bitcoin dominance by roughly 12 months and the current reading points to dominance grinding higher from here. In the 2022 episode, BTC dominance rose from roughly 39% to 48% through the first half of the year before round-tripping into year end.

Liquidity is fragile, and the setup points to a potential 2022-style headwind.

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