Hello everyone, today is May 18, 2026, Monday

What's the situation now? — Continuing to drop, the bulls are suffering from a "cleanup"

As of today (May 18) morning, Bitcoin has directly broken below the 77,000 USD mark, hitting a low of around 76,900 USD, with a nearly 1.5% drop in 24 hours. Ethereum is worse off, dropping more than 3 points, already down to around 2,100 USD.

The most critical data is the liquidation data. In the past 24 hours, over 100,000 people across the network have been liquidated, with a total amount exceeding 650 million USD. Moreover, the vast majority were bulls (those betting on the rise) who got liquidated, accounting for over 60%. What does this indicate? It indicates that last week there were some signs of rebound, and just as everyone wanted to rush in for a bet, they were directly struck down by the market.

Why is it dropping? — The macro "tightening spell" is being recited again

This drop is actually not much related to the internal crypto circle; the main issue stems from the external world:

1. US Treasury yields have skyrocketed: The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond surged to 5.13%, a new high in nearly a year. This means that if you lend money to the US government, lying down for a year will yield over 5% in risk-free returns, so who would still want to hold Bitcoin, an asset that doesn’t generate interest and has high volatility? Funds will naturally flow away.

2. Rate cuts are off the table again: Everyone originally hoped that the Federal Reserve would cut rates soon, but now it looks basically hopeless. The market predicts that the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in June is close to 100%, and it’s highly likely that it won’t move in July either. As long as rates don’t drop, there won’t be enough "water" in the market, making it difficult for the crypto circle to surge.

3. ETF fund flow has dried up: The institutional buying frenzy seen earlier has weakened recently, and just a few days ago there was a net outflow of over 600 million USD in a single day. Previously, it was supported by large institutions, but now with institutional buying coming to a halt, the price cannot hold.

What’s the current market sentiment? — Panic, but institutions are picking up chips

Sentiment indicator: The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 39, entering the "fear" zone. Retail investors are generally quite panicked now.

On-chain data: Although the price is falling, a group of "big players" (whales) and long-term holders are actually not selling much, and are even quietly buying. The Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have also dropped to their lowest point in several years. This indicates that the "floating chips" in the market are decreasing, and once the macro environment improves, the rebound will be quite strong.

How to operate? — Endure this "garbage time"

Chu Yuancheng: May 18 Bitcoin ETH market analysis and trading reference

This position is quite awkward, let me give some direct advice:

1. Hold your hands, don’t rush to bottom fish (important advice repeated thrice). Although it has dropped quite a bit now, this major macro adversity hasn’t been digested yet, and technically, Bitcoin has broken below the key support level of 78,000. The current strategy is "better to miss out than to buy wrong." It is advised to patiently wait until the price stabilizes, at least wait until around 75,000 USD or see clear signals of a volume rebound before considering entry.

2. Pay attention to this week’s support levels

Bitcoin (BTC): First look at whether the psychological level of 75,000 can be held; if not, then look for support around 73,000.

Ethereum (ETH): Much weaker than Bitcoin; if 2,100 does not hold, the next level could be down to 2,000 or even 1,900. Be cautious if you hold Ethereum.

For intraday short contracts, aggressive traders can short near 77,000, and if there’s a rebound, add to short positions around 78,000, with a stop-loss at 78,600 and a target of 75,000.

ETH short positions in sync with Bitcoin, entering short around 2,130; if the price reaches the 2,160–2,170 range, add to short positions with a stop-loss at 2,200 and a target of 2,000 USD.

Friends who want to exchange trading ideas can leave a message; I will provide timely entry and exit tips based on real-time market changes. Yesterday, I provided the 78,300—18,500 short position in the article; those who followed should have profited from this move.

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