The war between the United States and Iran has been ongoing for nearly two months now, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has also lasted for almost two months. In these two months, there have been many reversals and TACO events, but the same script continues to play out each week. What external forces Trump can mobilize seem to have nearly been exhausted. His visit to China managed to bring out some public cooperation, where Xi Jinping agreed to help coordinate relations with Iran, but so far, there has been no visible progress.

On Sunday, Trump continued to make strong statements, saying that Iran does not have much time left, and Iran has responded very firmly. In just a few hours, the CME will open, and WTI prices are expected to continue under pressure. Recently, shorting WTI has felt much better this week; Binance has finally completed the adjustment of its funding rate mechanism. Not only did the weekend funding rates not explode, but also the rates returned to normal levels during regular U.S. stock market closing times.

At least this has reduced the cost of holding short positions; otherwise, I really wouldn’t have the courage to continue holding on. It has been exhausting. I hope this week brings some improvement, as I believe that before I reach my breaking point, U.S. inflation won't be able to hold out much longer either, and the risk markets in the U.S. likely can't sustain themselves in the face of such high inflation.

This time around, I made some money shorting WTI, but it has been so tiring. Especially during these two weeks, although not long, the funding rates and cyclical reversals have been almost unbearable. If the funding rates had not been adjusted this week, I estimate I might have had to quit even if at a loss.

Looking at Bitcoin data, the weekend data was quite normal, with nothing out of the ordinary. After the U.S. stock market opens on Monday, I will probably have to re-enter dual currency financial products, as it has returned to a viable range for investment. Personally, I don’t believe in a short-term drop of $BTC to $40,000; at least up to now, I have not seen any reasons for it to drop that low. Of course, if there is really an economic recession or a world war in the future, that would be another matter.

But at least for now, I still feel that the market continues to move in sync with the U.S. economy, macro conditions, and political developments, especially under the strong FOMO driven by AI. A sudden collapse of the market would only likely be caused by an external black swan event.

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