What to know : Bitcoin’s recent rise from about $80,000 to $82,000 has occurred despite a persistently negative Coinbase Premium, signaling weaker U.S. institutional spot demand than offshore buying. CryptoQuant data show that apparent demand has narrowed sharply since April but is being driven mainly by perpetual futures rather than spot accumulation, a pattern historically associated with less durable rallies. Analysts say the move has the hallmarks of a relief bounce similar to March 2022, with $70,000 identified as key on-chain support where short-term traders’ average cost basis could limit further selling if prices retreat.
Bitcoin's recent rise above $80,000 was led by leveraged trades and lacked strong participation from the U.S.-based investor pool, which typically plays a key role in sustaining bullish trends.
Their underperformance of U.S. spot buyers relative to their global peers is evident in the Coinbase Premium, which measures the price gap between bitcoin on Coinbase and on offshore exchanges, has stayed negative since late April, per CryptoQuant data.
A positive premium typically signals U.S. institutional demand outpacing the rest of the world's spot buying, since Coinbase is the primary on-ramp for American capital. A negative premium means the opposite: offshore traders are paying more for bitcoin than U.S. investors are willing to pay, driving prices higher.
That divergence has now held through a 5% rally. Bitcoin traded above $82,000 on Tuesday before slipping back below $80,000 after Wednesday's hot producer price index print, with the cryptocurrency changing hands near $79,500 at the time of writing.
The price action played out entirely above the $80,000 level at which the Coinbase Premium turned negative. CoinDesk first flagged the negative flip in the premium on April 29 alongside a $5.97 billion spike in realized losses from underwater holders selling into the rally.
Other onchain metrics, such as CryptoQuant's apparent demand, also point to lingering weakness in spot demand. The metric, which measures how much new bitcoin is absorbed by the market relative to mining issuance and changes in dormant supply, has narrowed to -11,000 BTC as of today, from -91,000 BTC in April.
In other words, onchain demand has improved from a heavy supply overhang to near balance. However, it is still slightly negative, indicating spot absorption is falling short of meeting supply-side pressures.
Futures-led rally
The demand growth that materialized was concentrated in perpetual futures positions rather than spot accumulation, according to CryptoQuant.
Perpetuals are futures without expiry, allowing traders to hold leveraged bullish and bearish bets, with funding payments to keep contract prices close to the spot price.
The leverage magnifies gains but also carries risk. Perpetual futures bids can unwind quickly when funding rates flip or liquidations cascade. Spot accumulation tends to sit on the order book for longer.
Hence, rallies driven by futures positioning rather than spot demand tend to be less durable. Coincidentally, BTC has fallen back below $80,000 over the past 24 hours.
2022 again?
CryptoQuant said in a weekly note that the current setup is that the rally has the structural signature of a relief bounce rather than a fresh accumulation phase.
The analysis also drew a parallel to March 2022, when bitcoin rallied 43% before stalling near its 200-day moving average and resuming its downtrend. The current rally is up 37% from the April lows. Unrealized profit margins, the analysts wrote, are at "similar levels" to what was seen in March 2022.
The next test sits at the $70,000 level, which CryptoQuant identified as the Traders' On-chain Realized Price and the most likely support if the current rally fades.
That figure represents the average cost basis of short-term traders. It is the level at which unrealized profit margins compress back toward zero, removing the structural incentive to keep selling.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
