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"Slow Thinking" in Investment: Observe, Understand, Then Take Action

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道说Crypto
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1 hour ago
AI summarizes in 5 seconds.

In yesterday's article, I shared my views on some innovative project tokens, specifically naming a few cases where I publicly shared in the article but did not buy their NFTs and tokens.

After completing that share, I reflected on my experiences and feelings over the years and the changes that have taken place in my investment style:

I am no longer as afraid as I used to be of missing out on so-called tenfold or hundredfold coins; instead, I care more about whether I can understand the long-term potential and value of the asset I am buying.

This shift in style has led to significant differences in my operations compared to before.

With the old mindset of being afraid of missing out, it was easy to see a new thing and jump in immediately, resulting in funds being widely distributed across various projects.

In reality, the vast majority of these projects will ultimately fail. Even if there are a few that yield good returns, the overall returns are not high. Moreover, many of the projects I participated in didn't allow for any follow-up tracking or research. For many of the failed cases, I don't even know why they failed and even less about what lessons could be learned from them.

Perhaps it is because I have gained some experiences, or perhaps it is because I have learned some lessons from the investment journeys of some predecessors. Especially now, when I see new projects, I no longer overly struggle with whether I will miss an opportunity; instead, I am more willing to first think through it according to my own logic, to determine whether it meets my judgment criteria, and then decide on subsequent actions.

Unless it is a project I particularly like, I will participate regardless of whether it succeeds or fails in the future; for the vast majority of projects, I will generally just keep an eye on them, and continue to observe until I can understand them before participating. If I don't understand, I won't be distressed about missing out.

In this regard, the examples of Duan Yongping and Buffett buying Apple left a deep impression on me.

Duan Yongping and Buffett began buying Apple in 2011 and 2016, respectively.

In 2001, ten years before Duan Yongping bought Apple, Apple's market capitalization was only $7 billion. When he began buying Apple in 2011, the market cap had soared to $360 billion. That's more than 50 times what it was ten years prior.

In 2006, ten years before Buffett bought Apple, Apple's market cap was $73 billion. When he began buying Apple in 2016, the market cap had expanded to $610 billion. That's more than eight times what it was ten years before.

From the perspective of when they bought in, the market cap at which they purchased Apple had increased significantly compared to ten years prior, leading many to view their purchase prices as not cheap at all.

However, they bought Apple based on their own understanding and ultimately received substantial returns. Duan Yongping achieved nearly a 16-fold return on Apple (including dividends), while Buffett gained almost 8-fold (including dividends).

This figure may not seem impressive to many who talk big, but for their scale of capital, it is quite remarkable.

What does this illustrate?

It indicates that compared to how many times an asset has increased in the past, it is more important whether an investor can see its future growth potential and understand its logic for future value appreciation.

Once you understand these things and recognize its potential, even if it has already increased many times compared to the past, it is still not late to get in.

I recall my experiences buying Bitcoin and Ethereum.

In the early days when I encountered them, I thought the former was a pyramid scheme, and the latter couldn't outcompete EOS.

One day, when I came across them again, I gradually started to appreciate their value and significance, believing that they still held tremendous potential and value in the future; thus, I began to clear out miscellaneous assets and invest in them.

However, by that time, their market caps had already risen by hundreds, thousands, or even tens of thousands of times compared to when they first launched. But this did not affect my ability to continue profiting from them later on, nor will it impact my future gains from them.

In this sense, even when encountering a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, if you can participate and hold onto it at first sight, it is certainly great; but even if you miss the initial attraction, it is still not too late to understand it later and then participate.

Moreover, using this approach can filter out the vast majority of projects that will ultimately fail, reducing the likelihood of stumbling into pitfalls and taking wrong turns.

This logic applies to other assets as well.

Having clarified this reasoning, I am now more willing to first observe and track new projects rather than rushing to take action.

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