U.S. District Judge William M. Conley ruled on Monday that the Ho-Chunk Nation has shown “a likelihood of success” in its lawsuit accusing Kalshi of violating the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act by offering sports event contracts on tribal land, according to Bloomberg’s reporting on the ruling. The Ho-Chunk Nation, a federally recognized Native American tribe, filed the case last August in the US District Court for the Western District of Wisconsin against Kalshi Inc., KalshiEX LLC, Robinhood Markets Inc., and Robinhood Derivatives LLC.

The order reverses the dominant federal court pattern from earlier tribal challenges to Kalshi and signals the first federal precedent siding with tribes in the operator’s nationwide IGRA litigation.

In November 2025, US District Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley in the Northern District of California denied a temporary restraining order sought by Blue Lake Rancheria, Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians, and Picayune Rancheria of the Chukchansi Indians. Corley held at the time that the plaintiffs had “not met their burden of showing a likelihood of success on their IGRA claim,” adding, “The Court does not take lightly Plaintiffs’ concerns about the effects Kalshi’s activities might have on tribal sovereignty and the Tribes’ finances.” That ruling is now on appeal at the Ninth Circuit.

The Ho-Chunk Nation filed for a preliminary injunction in December 2025, seeking to bar Kalshi and Robinhood from offering sports event contracts to users on the tribe’s Indian lands for the duration of the lawsuit. Sixteen tribes signed an amicus brief supporting the tribal position. The case docket includes a Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act claim characterizing Kalshi’s sports event contracts business as a “Gaming Racket,” along with false advertising claims. The trial is scheduled for May 24, 2027, before Conley.

Kalshi has argued throughout the Wisconsin litigation that its CFTC-regulated designated contract market (DCM) status preempts the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act. Company counsel cited the 2006 Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act’s exemption of DCM-traded contracts from the federal definition of “bet or wager,” along with the CFTC’s self-certification process for new event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act. Those arguments mirror the position Kalshi advanced successfully in earlier prediction-market enforcement cases before Judge Corley.

The Wisconsin Ho-Chunk ruling lands alongside a separate state-level enforcement push. On April 23, 2026, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed three parallel state lawsuits in Dane County Circuit Court naming Kalshi and Robinhood, Polymarket, and Crypto.com (operating as Foris Dax Markets), along with Coinbase as defendants for facilitating sports betting that violates Wisconsin’s Class I felony gambling statute. Kaul stated at a virtual press conference that “thinly disguising unlawful conduct doesn’t make it lawful” and that the companies should be “shut down” from offering sports-related event contracts to Wisconsin customers. The CFTC subsequently sued Wisconsin, along with four other states, for what it characterized as interference with federal regulatory authority over derivatives markets.

Kalshi has not yet publicly responded to Conley’s Monday ruling at the time of publication. The decision adds to a fragmented federal landscape of preliminary rulings on Kalshi sports event contracts, with the company holding a Third Circuit-affirmed injunction in New Jersey while losing similar motions in Maryland and seeing its Nevada injunction dissolved on review.

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