What to know : Major cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, largely held their gains near record levels even as global equity markets and other risk assets came under pressure. Investor Michael Burry warned that tech and AI-related stocks are in a parabolic, overvalued phase, urging investors to take profits as semiconductor shares and the Nasdaq 100 trade at stretched valuations. Rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, along with a key U.S. inflation report due Tuesday, threaten to test the recent rally in both equities and crypto markets.
Crypto majors held their ground on Tuesday even as the macro tape turned sharply against risk assets.
Bitcoin traded just over $81,000 in Asian morning hours Tuesday after briefly touching $82,026 overnight. Solana (SOL) and were the standouts among the majors, up as much as 2% on the day. BNB added 1.7% to $662, XRP held at $1.46, up 0.9% on the day while ether down 0.8%.
Investor Michael Burry, made famous in The Big Short for calling the 2008 housing collapse, warned in a Substack post that the Nasdaq 100 is trading at 43 times earnings, well above the implied level of around 30 times, and likened the current setup to "the scene of the bloody car crash, minutes before it happens."
Burry flagged the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's 70% rally since the end of March as the centerpiece of what he called a parabolic surge in tech valuations, advising readers to take profits and reduce exposure to the AI trade.
"Wall Street may be overstating by more than 50% the earnings at our fastest growing, most highly valued companies," Burry wrote.
Brent crude zoomed almost 1% to above $105 a barrel after President Donald Trump cast doubt on the ceasefire with Iran in remarks Monday, fueling concern that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be prolonged. The Treasury 10-year yield rose to 4.42% and the dollar strengthened against all its Group-of-10 peers on haven demand.
Equity markets across Asia pulled back from records. The Kospi slid as much as 5.1% intraday after a top South Korean policymaker proposed paying citizens a dividend funded by taxes on AI profits, with the comments fueling sharp swings as investors tried to parse the scope of the proposal.
MSCI's Asia Pacific index swung between gains and losses. European futures pointed to a 0.6% loss at the open. U.S. futures edged lower after the S&P 500 closed at a record high Monday, capping a six-week winning streak that gained more than 16%, the strongest such run since the global financial crisis.
Bitcoin's price-action will likely be tested later Tuesday as investors watch the U.S. inflation print, which will show how much of the war-driven price pressures has fed through to consumer prices and could shape the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
A hot number on top of fresh Iran tensions and Burry's bear call would put real pressure on the AI-trade thesis underpinning the equity rally, while a soft print buys risk assets, including crypto, another week of room.
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