Bitcoin is hovering around 80,000, and many friends are extremely dissatisfied with SOL, and the same goes for Ethereum; however, Lao Cui has focused entirely on SOL both last year and this year, feeling mentally and physically exhausted, without the energy to pay attention to too many currencies. Today's article serves as an explanation for everyone, acknowledging that last year’s prediction of SOL breaking the 300 high was a failed decision; as a result, the price has dropped continuously, and Lao Cui has been adding to positions with users, with the current average price still above 140. At this stage, users still holding SOL in spot positions must feel the same as Lao Cui, that risks and profits are equal, which has been explained while giving everyone hope. However, facing Bitcoin's recovery from 60,000 to 80,000, reflecting on personal SOL still shows a huge loss, the strong contrast makes one feel very unbalanced. When will SOL be able to return to the high of 295?

First, determine the trend; currently, SOL's following form is good, combined with two significant news events in mid-May, one being Trump's visit to China, and the other being Walsh's rise to power. These two pieces of news are likely to release positive news, making Bitcoin's growth crucial. Lao Cui himself is also a supporter of a bull market; the last surge to a high of 126,000 had a correction depth at 60,000, and from this shape, the depth of recovery is sufficient. Additionally, from the positions held by giants, the purpose of turnover seems to have been basically achieved, with MicroStrategy and BlackRock's holdings reaching nearly 1.3%. Currently, these two holdings are still steadily increasing, and Lao Cui estimates that their proportion will reach at least around 5%, which is a long-term plan. From the current situation, the support of this wave of funds is sufficient. Don't compare it to prior growth rates; stablecoins are also a steadily increasing process, with the target in three years to reach two trillion being set by the Americans.

At this stage, there's no specific strategy emerging. How many stablecoins will be issued on the SOL chain? This is also a figure worth pondering. Judging solely by the current market situation, SOL is unlikely to reach historical highs, and for small coins to experience explosive growth, it must have its own technical support. Always trailing behind Bitcoin, it can at most touch this critical level of 140. For further development, there must be a sentiment support similar to the issuance of Trump coins through the SOL channel. This year appears to offer such an opportunity; SOL's upgrade announcement indicates that it has found a technology that can solve both speed and stability issues; frankly speaking, those who understand blockchain technology do not hold much optimism for this matter. SOL has always pursued speed as a currency, while stability has been Ethereum's strength. The founding team's slogan has been shouted out; as for Lao Cui, he remains somewhat hopeful about this matter.

Regarding this issue, there are simply two sides; one is that it can be solved, and the other is that it cannot be solved. If it can be solved, the timeline falls in the second half of the year, possibly even towards the end of December; the best-case scenario would be successful technical upgrades and interest rate cuts in December, which might lead to a surge in SOL pushing it to touch the 200 mark. A somewhat better situation would be if the cryptocurrency bull market after the end of the year extends into next year or even the year after, then SOL's historical highs would have the chance to break through. Additionally, everyone needs to continuously monitor the direction of the economy. Many friends have been affected by the depreciation of the USD against the CNY, making them feel that the Americans are facing some irreconcilable problems. Although Lao Cui does not particularly favor Trump's economic policies, from an economic standpoint, it doesn't seem that the Americans have "lost." The exchange rate issue, while the USD appears to depreciate against the CNY, the currencies like the Korean won, Japanese yen, and even the euro against the USD are all showing declining trends.

From this perspective, Trump has capitalized on a wave; whether the economy is good or not is reflected through the currency, be it liquidity or exchange rate appreciation, these indicators can truly reflect a country’s economic situation. Most friends are affected and feel that the current retaliatory growth of the Americans is excessively inflated. If one looks at the global economy, it's problematic if US stocks are not rising; simultaneously, Trump promoting Walsh’s rise signals is also very clear; before the nominee candidates, Hassett’s voice was the loudest. Variables also occurred right before the nomination; after Trump's night meeting with Walsh, he directly submitted Walsh's name; what agreements were reached during that time, we cannot know. The only speculation can start from Trump's perspective; what does Trump currently want to push for? What strategic support does he need? All has been laid out on the table; to make data look good, the measures to take are simply interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansions, which have been expanding since this year. As for interest rate cuts, it is likely to come with Walsh's ascent; we won't guess further, we will just wait for signals.

The 15th is also not far, and Walsh's remarks upon taking office are crucial, and Trump's visit to China has interestingly been scheduled to conclude from the 13th to the 15th. During this period, everyone must be careful not to make mistakes. SOL's journey in the second half of the year will definitely see its own explosion, and so far, SOL has also outperformed Ethereum, so if you have positions, you must seriously consider SOL; remember, do not enter contracts for this type of currency, just buy some spot. In Lao Cui's estimation, this year SOL will definitely be the currency with the strongest growth among all listed currencies. As for contract users, Lao Cui has never changed his view on Bitcoin; entering short positions around 82,500 is necessary, definitely shorting and not going long. This morning, touching 82,641 coincidentally hit our ideal entry point; if you haven't entered yet, then wait for the next opportunity! In the short term, Lao Cui will not be bullish!

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